Can You Learn to be Lucky?

Can You Learn to be Lucky? Plot Summary

Introduction

The rain poured down relentlessly as Sarah stood at the bus stop, cursing her luck. Her umbrella had broken that morning, her job interview had been canceled last minute, and now she was drenched. Just as she was about to give up hope, a stranger approached, offering to share their umbrella. This simple act of kindness led to a conversation, which led to a coffee, which eventually led to a job offer at a company Sarah had never even heard of—a position that would change the trajectory of her career forever. Was this just random chance, or was there something more at play? We often attribute life-changing moments to luck—being in the right place at the right time, meeting the right person, or having the right opportunity fall into our lap. But what if luck isn't as random as we think? What if there are patterns and principles that govern seemingly chance events? In this exploration of serendipity, we'll discover how certain behaviors, mindsets, and environments can dramatically increase our chances of experiencing "lucky" breaks. Through fascinating research and compelling stories, we'll uncover how the most successful people aren't just passive recipients of good fortune—they actively create conditions where luck can find them, recognize opportunities others miss, and transform ordinary moments into extraordinary outcomes.

Chapter 1: First Impressions: The Power of Timing and Sequence

At the Motor City Tattoo Expo in Detroit, Mike Siderio sat at a judging table, evaluating the intricate artwork adorning contestants' bodies. As a veteran tattoo artist and frequent competition judge, he'd seen thousands of tattoos over the years. The event followed a standard format: contestants paraded before judges who scored each entry, determining winners in categories like "Best Traditional" or "Best Portrait." But as the day wore on, Siderio noticed something curious about his own judging patterns—the scores he gave later contestants were consistently higher than those he'd given earlier in the day. This phenomenon isn't unique to tattoo competitions. In figure skating championships, researchers have documented that athletes performing later in the sequence consistently receive higher scores than equally talented competitors who perform earlier. The same pattern appears in everything from wine tastings to American Idol auditions. When Olympic figure skater Tara Lipinski won gold in 1998, she benefited not just from her remarkable performance but also from skating after Michelle Kwan, whose routine had set a high bar that made Lipinski's subsequent performance shine even brighter by comparison. Even more alarming is how this timing effect influences life-altering decisions. A study of parole board rulings revealed that judges were significantly more likely to grant parole to cases heard early in the morning or right after food breaks. As the hours passed between breaks, the likelihood of a favorable ruling dropped dramatically—from about 65% to nearly zero just before the next break. The judges weren't consciously discriminating; they were simply experiencing decision fatigue. Our brains are fundamentally lazy, constantly looking for shortcuts to conserve energy. When faced with a series of decisions, we unconsciously establish reference points based on what we've seen first, then adjust our standards as we go. This explains why closing time at bars famously leads to lowered standards—it's not just alcohol at work, but our brain's tendency to compare available options against what we've already seen and rejected. These timing effects reveal something profound about human judgment: we don't evaluate things in isolation but rather in relation to what came before. This has implications far beyond competitions or dating—it affects hiring decisions, college admissions, and countless other evaluations where the order of consideration might matter more than we'd like to admit. By understanding these patterns, we can become more aware of when our judgments might be skewed by timing, and perhaps develop strategies to counteract these unconscious biases.

Chapter 2: Familiar Faces: How Trust Shapes Decision-Making

When I ask how he plans to choose his starting quarterback, Coach Hank Carter's eyes widen with excitement. He leans forward and explains: "His grandfather was a quarterback for the University of Texas. His father was a quarterback for the University of Texas. His uncle was a quarterback for the University of Texas. His brother had been a quarterback at Texas Tech University but transferred and is now the starting quarterback at Virginia Tech. His older brother, Michael, won two state championships as a starting quarterback for us." "Charlie is the next one in line," he concludes. Charlie Brewer, it seems, has the ultimate advantage – he's quarterback royalty, descended from generations of Texas quarterbacks, including his brother who helped launch the school's championship streak. Charlie is already embedded in the team's fabric; his mother used to host weekly team dinners when his older brother played. His selection seems inevitable. Amitai Shenhav, a researcher at Brown University, offers insight into how our brains make such decisions. He likens the process to collecting marbles that correspond to an option's value. When we're deciding between two things, we're comparing the overall weight of marbles for each option. For a clear choice – like a free phone versus free gum – the scale tips immediately. But when values are similar, the decision becomes trickier, like collecting same-sized marbles that make the scale wobble evenly. Our brain is constantly gathering evidence for different options, but something interesting happens: once our scale starts tipping in one direction, we begin selectively picking up marbles that support that leaning. We interpret information in ways that confirm our hunches. Our lazy brain favors thoughts that are easier to process, and familiar information just feels right. This explains why Coach Carter's heart raced when discussing Charlie Brewer. The thought of Charlie as quarterback was fluent – it made perfect sense given his family history. The Charlie Brewer principle reveals how luck often depends on familiarity: people who are already known and trusted have an enormous advantage. Simply being present and visible over time creates a positive feedback loop where each interaction adds another "safe" marble to the scale, making you seem like the natural choice when opportunities arise.

Chapter 3: The Confidence Effect: Approaching Life's Opportunities

The annual Kindergarten Admissions Fair in New York City resembles nothing so much as a high-stakes poker game. Parents in designer clothes clutch coffee cups nervously, strategizing how to get their four-year-olds into elite preschools with $40,000 annual tuitions. At one such event, a woman with perfectly coiffed hair pushed through the crowd, cutting in front of dozens of waiting parents. When confronted, she simply smiled and said, "I'm Jane Krakowski," as if her celebrity status entitled her to special treatment. The remarkable thing wasn't just her boldness—it was how effectively it worked. The crowd parted, administrators smiled, and she glided through with ease. This scene illustrates a fundamental truth about confidence: it often creates its own reality. Researchers have found that confident people—even when their confidence is entirely unwarranted—tend to be more successful than their more capable but less confident peers. In one study, participants who overestimated their abilities were more likely to be viewed as competent by others and achieve higher status in groups. This "confidence premium" exists because humans are hierarchical creatures with brains wired to recognize and respect status signals. Our brains contain specialized systems that regulate our approach toward rewards (the behavioral activation system or BAS) and our avoidance of threats (the behavioral inhibition system or BIS). Those with a more active BAS tend to be more confident, status-seeking, and willing to take risks. They're constantly scanning for opportunities rather than threats, which makes them more likely to spot and seize lucky breaks. This biological difference helps explain why some people seem naturally more confident than others. Status and confidence are intimately connected in a self-reinforcing cycle. High-status individuals experience lower stress hormones like cortisol and higher levels of testosterone, which further increases their confidence. This biological advantage creates a "winner effect"—success breeds physiological changes that make future success more likely. Conversely, those who feel lower in status experience higher stress, which impairs cognitive function and decision-making, creating a negative spiral. Gender plays a crucial role in confidence development. Research shows that by age six, girls are already less likely than boys to believe they can be "really, really smart." This isn't because girls perform worse—they often outperform boys academically—but because they internalize cultural messages about gender and ability. When women enter male-dominated fields, they face "stereotype threat," where anxiety about confirming negative stereotypes actually impairs performance. This helps explain why women are less likely to apply for jobs unless they meet 100% of the qualifications, while men apply when meeting just 60%. Building confidence isn't just about positive thinking—it requires creating environments where success feels possible. By understanding the biological and social factors that influence confidence, we can develop strategies to boost our own mental game and create conditions where others can thrive. The most successful people aren't necessarily the most talented, but rather those who've mastered the art of projecting and maintaining confidence even when facing uncertainty.

Chapter 4: Finding Your Element: When Talent Meets Opportunity

In 2007, Donald Thomas became the world champion in the high jump. He'd started seriously training in that sport eight months earlier. Thomas's story began with peer pressure from his college basketball teammates. Impressed with his vertical leap, they wanted to see how high he could jump. He cleared six feet six inches on his first try, executing a perfect Fosbury Flop – a technique that involves arching your back over the bar. His world-class genetic endowment for high jumping wasn't obvious when he dabbled in the sport in high school, but by college, it became clear he was "gifted with a large Achilles tendon" enabling him to powerfully propel his weight over the bar. Thomas's victory relied on his immutable physical traits being exposed to an activity he was uniquely suited to. But it also required access to world-class coaches, training facilities, social support, and the confidence to compete in high-stakes events mere months after taking up the sport. For a singular skill like high jumping, world-class expertise requires a million things to come together – strength-to-weight ratio, coordination, explosive power, running speed, ability to remain calm under pressure, leg length, flexibility, and mental toughness. "When it comes to skill, there are three components," states John Krakauer, a neuroscientist at Johns Hopkins University and expert on expertise. "One is genetics." Roughly 99.5% of human genetic code is universal, but that 0.5% differentiates Serena Williams from Stephen Hawking. Complex physical abilities are polygenic, with genetic differences accounting for 31% to 85% of variation between athletes. The second component is resources. "Nowadays, if you want to do any of these things, it requires a significant outlay of money and time on part of parents and everyone else," explains Krakauer. Developing expertise is an investment. The sociologist Dan Chambliss, who studied Olympic swimmers, notes: "If you've got a lousy first teacher, if your first stroke technique when you're young is bad, that becomes ingrained. And you're screwed." Gold medals aren't free. When Tara Lipinski was eleven, fearing her skating was slipping because of inadequate training facilities in Texas, she and her mother moved to Delaware to train at the University of Delaware's ice arena. Two years later, they relocated to Michigan to train with a better coach. Coaching, travel, costumes, equipment, and housing ran $50,000 a year, which the Lipinskis afforded by mortgaging their home. One shortcut to becoming an expert is finding something you're already good at. Talent is relative, which is why our confidence in walking increases next to a baby but decreases next to a professional dancer. Discovering what you pick up quickly creates a positive spiral where confidence and performance bolster each other, making it easier to enjoy and stick with necessary practice. The truly fortunate among us aren't just those born with genetic gifts, but those who discover their natural talents and find environments that nurture those abilities into extraordinary achievements.

Chapter 5: Self-Control: The Ultimate Luck Multiplier

When I first met Derek Sivers in 2007, he was beaming. One of his heroes, Chris Anderson – then editor-in-chief of Wired – had just complimented Sivers's company, CD Baby, an online storefront that sold independent musicians' CDs. Sivers is unflinchingly optimistic and excited about whatever he happens to be doing. His friends nicknamed him the Robot because of another striking personality trait: "I don't hang out, don't party. If there's something I can't play, sing, or write, I shut the door and work on it for three to eight hours until it's finished," he explains. Few people can block out the world for such long stretches to make progress on something that isn't binge-watching TV. After graduating from music school, Sivers learned that musician Ryuichi Sakamoto needed a guitarist for his Japanese tour. Sivers stayed up all night writing and recording new guitar arrangements, handed Sakamoto the demo tape the next day, and got the gig. In 1993, when Sivers's roommate mentioned the internet, his curiosity flared up. "Right away I wanted to figure out how to make World Wide Web pages of my own," he says. He taught himself HTML in one afternoon, giving him an edge over non-programmers. Driven by his new obsession, he became a fixture on early bulletin boards, sharing technical and legal information with musicians. While most of us only chip away at learning programming languages when we feel like it, making a habit of following through yields lucky dividends over time. When his friend asked if he would set up a website to sell CDs for other bands, Sivers built the site over a weekend with just $500. Ten years later, he sold CD Baby for $22 million. Looking the part, being cute, and playing tennis aren't the only ways to get lucky: Sometimes we just have to put on our big-kid pants and finish our work. Being able to regulate your own behavior allows you to build and capitalize on lucky opportunities. Self-control is like confidence, another skill that adds to your luck. Many of your defining personality traits are situational. Everyone can become a paragon of self-control under the right circumstances. Think about the last time you rushed to get something done: In those moments spent running to a meeting or writing a paper before its deadline, you were an efficiency machine. This is the essence of self-control: focusing your energy on doing whatever most effectively gets you closer to completing things that matter. While intelligence is valuable, it only accounts for half of what distinguishes academic high achievers. The other half is self-regulation – the ability to plan, adjust your behavioral activation system to "complete this thing," and ignore everything else until reaching the desired end. The cumulative effect of working toward larger, future rewards in all areas is why self-regulation is one of the biggest predictors of success and why those who master it seem to experience more "lucky breaks" throughout their lives.

Chapter 6: Social Capital: Networks That Create Fortunate Encounters

Leigh Steinberg, the legendary sports agent who inspired the film "Jerry Maguire," didn't set out to represent professional athletes. As a law student at UC Berkeley in the early 1970s, he was simply helping out as a dorm counselor when he met a talented quarterback named Steve Bartkowski. When Bartkowski was selected as the first overall pick in the NFL draft, he asked Steinberg to negotiate his contract. Steinberg, with no experience in sports representation, managed to secure Bartkowski a record-breaking $650,000 deal. Word spread quickly, and soon other players were seeking him out. That single connection—formed not through strategic networking but through authentic relationship-building—launched Steinberg's legendary career representing over 60 first-round NFL draft picks. The power of social connections isn't just anecdotal—it's hardwired into our biology. When we form positive social bonds, our brains release oxytocin, often called the "bonding hormone," which creates feelings of trust and connection. This neurochemical response evolved because humans are fundamentally social creatures who depend on others for survival. Our brains treat social pain—rejection, exclusion, loneliness—much the same way they treat physical pain, using many of the same neural circuits. This biological reality explains why social connections feel so essential to our wellbeing. A fascinating study on facial scars reveals how deeply we're affected by social perception. Researchers applied realistic-looking temporary scars to participants' faces, then sent them into social interactions. The participants reported feeling stigmatized and rejected—but here's the twist: the researchers had secretly removed the scars before the interactions. The participants were responding not to actual rejection but to their anticipation of rejection. This demonstrates how powerfully our expectations shape our social experiences. Charisma—that magnetic quality that draws others in—isn't as mysterious as it might seem. Studies show it consists of two key components: warmth and competence. When we project both caring and capability, others naturally want to connect with us. This explains why enthusiasm is so contagious; it signals both passion (warmth) and confidence (competence). In one remarkable study, researchers found that judges could predict the success of musicians more accurately by watching silent video clips than by actually hearing them perform—visual cues about confidence and passion outweighed the actual quality of the music. The structure of our social networks matters tremendously for success. Having diverse connections across different social groups—what sociologists call "bridging social capital"—creates more opportunities for lucky breaks than having a tight network of similar people. This explains why extroverts often seem luckier; they typically maintain larger, more diverse social networks that expose them to more potential opportunities. However, introverts can be equally effective networkers by focusing on authentic, meaningful connections rather than quantity. Building strategic connections isn't about manipulative networking—it's about cultivating genuine relationships based on mutual value and trust. By understanding the science behind social connections, we can approach relationship-building more intentionally, creating the conditions where serendipitous opportunities are more likely to find us. As Steinberg's story illustrates, sometimes the most valuable connections come not from strategic networking events but from authentic interactions in unexpected places.

Chapter 7: Beauty Bias: The Unspoken Advantage

Sarah Palin's rise to political prominence offers a fascinating case study in how appearance shapes perception. Before becoming John McCain's running mate in 2008, Palin had competed in the 1984 Miss Alaska pageant. Though she didn't win the crown, her striking appearance would later become a significant factor in her political career. When McCain's team was searching for a vice-presidential candidate, they were immediately struck by Palin's telegenic qualities. As Todd Purdum later wrote in Vanity Fair, "No serious vetting had been done before the selection... [McCain] laid eyes on her once in person, and had a single telephone conversation with her." That brief meeting, heavily influenced by Palin's attractive appearance, catapulted her onto the national stage. The "beauty premium" is well-documented across numerous studies. Attractive people earn 3-4% more than average-looking counterparts with identical qualifications. They're more likely to be hired, promoted, and even receive better grades in school. In one particularly revealing study, researchers found that teachers expected more from attractive children and perceived them as more intelligent, even when objective measures showed no differences in ability. This bias starts remarkably early—even infants as young as six months show preferences for attractive faces, suggesting these biases may be partially hardwired. Our brains process beauty as inherently rewarding. Neuroscientists have discovered that viewing attractive faces activates the same reward centers in our brains that respond to delicious food or monetary gain. The orbitofrontal cortex—a region involved in processing rewards—lights up when we see attractive faces, creating an unconscious positive association. This explains why beauty can create a "halo effect," where we automatically attribute other positive qualities to attractive people. However, beauty isn't always beneficial. Attractive women in traditionally masculine fields often face a "beauty penalty," where their appearance leads others to question their competence. As one study participant put it, "If she looks like that, she probably didn't have to work very hard to get where she is." This phenomenon helps explain why attractive female politicians like Palin often face heightened scrutiny about their qualifications. The influence of appearance extends beyond conscious awareness. Our brains make rapid judgments about others within milliseconds of seeing their faces—judgments that can determine whether someone gets a job interview, a second date, or even a fair hearing in court. These snap judgments aren't just superficial; they shape real-world outcomes in profound ways. By understanding these biases, we can become more aware of how appearance influences our perceptions and decisions, allowing us to look beyond the surface and evaluate people based on more meaningful criteria. The beauty bias reveals an uncomfortable truth about luck: some advantages are distributed at birth and remain largely beyond our control. Yet recognizing these biases is the first step toward creating systems that allow talent to shine regardless of packaging. While we can't eliminate our unconscious responses to beauty, we can design processes that minimize their impact on important decisions, creating more equitable paths to success.

Summary

Throughout our exploration of serendipity, we've discovered that luck is less like lightning—random and unpredictable—and more like rain: something we can prepare for, anticipate, and even influence through our actions and mindset. From the timing effects that shape judgments to the beauty biases that open doors, from the confidence that creates its own reality to the social connections that multiply opportunities, we've seen how seemingly random good fortune often follows predictable patterns. The most "lucky" people aren't passive recipients of chance events but active creators of conditions where opportunities can find them. The science of serendipity offers us practical wisdom for creating our own luck. First, recognize that confidence often creates its own reality—approach life with an "I got this" mindset that keeps you scanning for opportunities rather than threats. Second, invest in diverse social connections that expose you to new ideas and possibilities. Third, develop the resilience to bounce back from inevitable setbacks by focusing on what you can control. And finally, perhaps most importantly, cultivate curiosity—maintain a willingness to explore the unknown, say yes to new experiences, and remain flexible about where your path might lead. By understanding and applying these principles, we can all increase the surface area of our luck, creating lives where serendipity isn't just something that happens to us, but something we actively cultivate.

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Karla Starr

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