Post Corona

Post Corona Plot Summary

Introduction

Time moves at different speeds. As Aristotle observed centuries ago, what we experience is not time itself, but change. Sometimes change occurs gradually over decades; other times, decades of change happen in weeks. The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be such a moment - a microscopic virus that dramatically accelerated existing trends across society, business, and technology. The pandemic served as a powerful lens, magnifying both the strengths and weaknesses in our systems. It exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains, healthcare infrastructure, and social safety nets. At the same time, it revealed opportunities for rapid transformation in how we work, learn, and connect. This acceleration has been most evident in technology adoption, economic concentration, and the widening gaps between winners and losers. Through examining these shifts, we gain insight into not just how to navigate the immediate crisis, but how to shape the "after" - the world that emerges when the pandemic subsides. The book offers a roadmap for business leaders, educators, and citizens who want to understand how these accelerated changes will impact their future and what strategic decisions might help them thrive in this new reality.

Chapter 1: The Great Acceleration: How Decades Happened in Weeks

The early months of 2020 witnessed an extraordinary compression of time as the world rapidly shifted from "before" to "after." At the beginning of March, life proceeded normally in most places outside China. By month's end, the world had shut down. A virus one four-hundredth the width of a human hair had set our planet spinning ten times faster. This acceleration phenomenon was evident across multiple sectors. E-commerce, which had been steadily growing at about 1% market share per year since 2000, jumped from 16% to 27% of retail in just eight weeks. Virtual meetings, which companies had been hesitantly adopting for years, became ubiquitous overnight. Technologies and trends that might have taken years to reach mainstream adoption were suddenly thrust into everyday life. As Lenin never actually said but is often paraphrased, "Nothing can happen for decades, and then decades can happen in weeks." The pandemic accelerated both positive and negative trends. On the positive side, it catalyzed innovations in telemedicine, remote work, and digital commerce that might have otherwise taken years to develop. The forced embrace of remote learning, despite its challenges, opened new possibilities for educational access. However, negative trends accelerated even faster. Economic inequality deepened dramatically as white-collar workers adapted to working from home while service workers faced unemployment or dangerous front-line conditions. The first three months of the COVID-19 recession saw greater employment loss (13%) than the entire two-year Great Recession (5%). This great acceleration also revealed a fundamental split in how societies responded to crisis. Previous generations, particularly during World War II, embraced collective sacrifice for the common good. Citizens planted victory gardens, manufacturers retooled factories for military production, and households invested in war bonds. The pandemic response, in contrast, often reflected a different ethos - one where individual convenience trumped collective wellbeing, where many expected solutions without sacrifice, and where the burden fell disproportionately on the vulnerable. This divergence points to deeper questions about our values and preparedness for future challenges, setting the stage for the transformations explored throughout the book.

Chapter 2: The Culling: Corporate Darwinism Under Crisis

The pandemic triggered a relentless culling of businesses across industries, revealing which companies had sufficient strength to weather catastrophic disruption. Despite headlines about market resilience, a closer examination showed dramatic disparities. While the S&P 500 recovered quickly, mid-cap companies were down 10% and small-cap companies plummeted 15% in the early months of the crisis. Behind these numbers lay a brutal reality: a long and growing list of bankruptcies including renowned brands like Neiman Marcus, JCPenney, Hertz, Gold's Gym, and many others. This wasn't merely a temporary setback but a fundamental reshaping of market dynamics. Capital markets made bold predictions about the post-pandemic environment, directing resources toward perceived winners while abandoning the losers. Companies with strong balance sheets, low debt, high-value assets, and low fixed costs survived and thrived. Cash-rich businesses like Costco, Honeywell, and Johnson & Johnson positioned themselves to acquire competitors' assets and customers. Meanwhile, businesses with questionable fundamentals that had relied on share buybacks instead of building reserves found themselves exposed. The crisis revealed that during emergencies, the optimal strategy is to overcorrect - cutting costs aggressively while seeking opportunities in the new landscape. Johnson & Johnson's response to the 1982 Tylenol tampering crisis exemplifies this approach. Though the poisoning wasn't their fault, J&J pulled 31 million bottles from shelves, established hotlines, and replaced purchased products. This apparent overreaction preserved their credibility and ultimately strengthened their market position. During COVID-19, successful companies followed similar principles - making decisive cuts while strategically investing in pandemic-resilient operations. The most advantageous position proved to be what some call "variable cost structures" - business models that allow companies to quickly scale costs down when revenue drops. Uber exemplifies this approach; when demand collapsed, it could reduce costs by 60-80% because drivers are independent contractors who provide their own vehicles. Traditional companies like Boeing or Hertz, burdened with fixed costs, couldn't achieve comparable flexibility. This disparity accelerated the ascendance of asset-light business models across industries. Perhaps most significantly, the pandemic accelerated "dispersion" - the decentralization of activities previously concentrated in physical locations. Amazon had already dispersed retail to our doorsteps, and Netflix had dispersed entertainment to our living rooms. Now, healthcare dispersed from hospitals to telemedicine, grocery shopping shifted from stores to delivery services, and work dispersed from offices to homes. These changes, which might have taken a decade to achieve, happened in weeks, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape and setting the stage for new winners and losers in the post-pandemic economy.

Chapter 3: Big Tech's Dominance: The Four Accelerate Their Power

As the pandemic devastated many industries, big tech companies achieved unprecedented growth. From March to July 2020, while the virus claimed over 150,000 American lives and unemployment reached record highs, nine major tech companies increased their market value by $1.9 trillion. This wasn't merely good fortune but the acceleration of existing market concentration trends, particularly benefiting what the author calls "the Four" - Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google - along with Microsoft. The dominance of these companies stems from what might be called the monopoly algorithm: innovate, obfuscate, and exploit. First, they created genuinely innovative products or services that captured market share. Then they protected their advantages through sophisticated lobbying, public relations, and legal maneuvers that shielded them from antitrust enforcement. Finally, they leveraged their positions to exploit users, competitors, and sometimes their own workers, extracting maximum value while facing minimal accountability. The pandemic provided ideal conditions for these companies to expand their reach. Amazon benefited from store closures and lockdowns that made e-commerce essential. Its cloud division, Amazon Web Services, powered the surge in online activity. Apple's transition toward subscription services and wearables accelerated, transforming it from a hardware company into a more resilient ecosystem player. Google and Facebook captured advertising dollars as traditional media struggled, consolidating their duopoly. These advantages aren't merely cyclical but structural. Big tech's enormous cash reserves and access to cheap capital allowed them to weather downturns that devastated competitors. Their data advantages and network effects created self-reinforcing flywheels that powered continued growth. And their ability to turn expenses into new revenue streams - as Amazon did with AWS, initially built for internal needs - enabled them to enter and dominate new markets with startling speed. This accelerating dominance raised serious concerns. These platforms increasingly shape public discourse, economic opportunity, and even mental health, yet operate with minimal oversight. Facebook's algorithm promotes content that drives engagement, regardless of its effects on democracy or wellbeing. Google's search dominance gives it unprecedented control over information access. Amazon's power over third-party sellers creates conflicts of interest that disadvantage potential competitors. Addressing these concerns requires rethinking antitrust enforcement for the digital age. Traditional antitrust focuses on consumer harm through higher prices, but many tech services appear "free" while extracting value through data and attention. Breaking up these companies isn't punishment but oxygenation - creating conditions for innovation and competition that benefit consumers, workers, and the broader economy. The pandemic showed that big tech's dominance isn't inevitable but a policy choice - one that increasingly demands reconsideration.

Chapter 4: Disruption Beyond Tech: New Winners in the Post-Corona Economy

Beyond the tech giants, the pandemic created unprecedented opportunities for disruptors across various industries. The acceleration of existing trends made certain sectors particularly vulnerable to disruption - especially those characterized by dramatic price increases without corresponding innovation or value improvement. Higher education and healthcare topped this list, with costs rising 1,400% and 600% respectively over forty years, without proportional quality improvements. Companies positioned to thrive in this environment share several characteristics that form what the author calls the "T Algorithm" - traits that give a company potential for trillion-dollar valuation. These include appealing to basic human instincts, creating recurring revenue bundles ("rundles"), achieving scale through technology, vertical integration, and visionary leadership. Disruption comes not just from revolutionary technology but from identifying industries with complacent incumbents and delivering substantially better value. Airbnb exemplifies successful disruption despite pandemic challenges. While initially suffering a 67% revenue drop, its asset-light model allowed it to quickly adapt, enabling hosts to offer longer stays in private spaces that felt safer than hotels. Unlike traditional accommodations with fixed costs and debt obligations, Airbnb could variabilize expenses and pivot toward domestic travel, demonstrating resilience that positions it for strong post-pandemic growth. In healthcare, the pandemic accelerated adoption of telehealth services that had previously faced resistance from providers and insurers. Companies like One Medical capitalized on this shift, offering healthcare through smartphones and other digital channels. The technology removed friction, costs, and stigma while increasing privacy and convenience. This transformation was not merely technological but represented a fundamental reimagining of service delivery. Peloton demonstrated how a company could transform crisis into opportunity. As gyms closed, demand for home fitness solutions surged. Peloton's combination of hardware, content, and community created a compelling value proposition. Its recurring revenue model (the $39 monthly subscription fee seems reasonable after purchasing a $2,000 bike) and 93% retention rate generated Netflix-like customer loyalty. By leveraging instructors across its user base, Peloton created a platform that could pay instructors triple what they earned at traditional fitness studios. Not all disruption proved equally positive. The rise of commission-free trading apps like Robinhood exposed concerning trends in financial technology. While democratizing investment access, these platforms employed gamification techniques that encouraged excessive trading and risk-taking. Features like falling confetti after transactions and colorful interfaces resembled video games more than financial tools, potentially driving addiction-like behaviors rather than sound investment practices. The pandemic ultimately served as a massive sorting mechanism, separating companies genuinely creating value from those merely exploiting venture capital or marketing hype. Many previously hyped startups faced existential challenges, while others discovered unexpected opportunities. The winners weren't necessarily the most well-funded or high-profile companies, but those with authentic value propositions and the agility to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances.

Chapter 5: Higher Education's Reckoning: A System Overdue for Change

Higher education entered the pandemic uniquely vulnerable to disruption. For decades, universities had raised prices at extraordinary rates - tuition increased 1,400% over 40 years - while the basic product remained largely unchanged. A university lecture today looks remarkably similar to one from a century ago. This combination of skyrocketing costs and stagnant innovation made higher education ripe for transformation. The traditional value proposition of college consists of three components: a credential (the brand value and career access from attending a particular institution), education (actual learning), and experience (campus life, socialization, and personal growth). The pandemic immediately compromised the experience component, forcing a fundamental reassessment of whether the remaining elements justified the cost. As campuses emptied and instruction shifted online, students and parents confronted the reality of paying full tuition for what many perceived as a diminished product. This crisis exposed deeper structural problems in higher education. Elite institutions had turned scarcity into a fetish, rejecting 90% or more of applicants despite having capacity to educate more students. As Princeton's own dean of admissions acknowledged, they could have admitted "five or six classes" from their qualified applicant pool. Meanwhile, the student debt crisis reached $1.6 trillion, with graduates carrying an average of $30,000 in loans. Rather than functioning as an engine of upward mobility, higher education increasingly reinforced privilege - at 38 of the top 100 colleges, there were more students from the top 1% of income than from the bottom 60%. The pandemic accelerated change in two waves. First came fiscal shock, as institutions faced enormous revenue shortfalls from decreased enrollment, particularly among international students who often pay full tuition. Harvard projected a $750 million shortfall despite its $40 billion endowment. More vulnerable institutions, especially those offering an "elite-like experience" without elite credentials or pricing power, faced existential threats. Many had become tuition-dependent while maintaining inflexible cost structures dominated by tenured faculty and administrative bloat. The second wave involved technological transformation. After initially struggling with the abrupt shift to online learning, universities began reimagining education delivery. The key insight was scale - online instruction allows faculty to reach far more students. When freed from physical classroom constraints, a professor who previously taught 160 students could teach 280 with minimal additional cost. This efficiency creates the potential to dramatically increase access while potentially reducing costs. Looking forward, the future likely involves hybrid models rather than a complete shift to virtual learning. The pandemic catalyzed investment in educational technology that will continue paying dividends. Partnerships between elite universities and technology companies could offer "80% of a traditional four-year degree for 50% of the price." Schools positioned to thrive include those with exceptional credentials (Harvard), those offering education at great prices (California State University), and those forming innovative partnerships to reach new student populations. The losers will likely be mid-tier private institutions that lack both prestige and price advantages. The transformation won't be painless - many schools will close, and jobs will be lost. However, the result could be a more accessible, affordable, and equitable system that better serves students from all backgrounds. Rather than free college (which would primarily benefit already-advantaged students), reforms should focus on expanding capacity at state schools, improving K-12 education, strengthening two-year programs, and making college more affordable for those who need it most.

Chapter 6: The Commonwealth: Rebuilding Community in a Fractured Society

The pandemic exposed and accelerated a deterioration of America's sense of community and shared sacrifice. For forty years, the United States had engaged in what might be called "capitalism on the way up, socialism on the way down" - allowing unconstrained wealth accumulation during good times while socializing losses during crises. When COVID-19 struck, this approach manifested in policies that protected shareholders and executives while leaving vulnerable workers exposed to both health and economic devastation. This imbalance reflected deeper problems in how we approach capitalism. At its best, capitalism harnesses self-interest to create unprecedented prosperity and opportunity. It leverages our species' superpower - cooperation at scale - to solve complex problems and create wealth. However, unregulated capitalism inevitably produces externalities (costs borne by society rather than market participants) and exploitation. The proper role of government is to set boundaries that prevent these abuses while preserving capitalism's dynamism. Unfortunately, America entered the pandemic with its government institutions deliberately weakened. Agencies tasked with protecting public health were underfunded and undermined. International cooperation had been abandoned in favor of nationalism. And the concept of sacrifice for the common good had atrophied to the point where even wearing masks became politicized. The result was catastrophic - despite having 5% of the world's population, the United States suffered 25% of global COVID-19 deaths. This failure revealed a series of comorbidities that made America particularly vulnerable. Economic inequality had reached levels unseen since the 1920s, with the top 0.1% owning more wealth than the bottom 80%. Economic mobility - the ability to improve one's circumstances through hard work - had declined to levels below those in many European countries. And cronyism had corrupted government decision-making, ensuring that relief efforts prioritized the well-connected over the truly needy. The path forward requires rekindling our sense of commonwealth - the understanding that our fates are interconnected. This means taking government seriously as a necessary and noble institution rather than an impediment to freedom. It requires enforcing antitrust laws to break up concentrations of economic power, including in big tech. And it demands creating opportunities for service that can bridge partisan divides and restore our capacity for collective action. One specific proposal is creating a "Corona Corps" - a national service program that would employ young adults in contact tracing, testing, and supporting isolated individuals. Such a program could provide meaningful work during an economic downturn while addressing the pandemic and fostering connections across social divides. It could become the nucleus of a permanent national service infrastructure that helps young Americans see each other as fellow citizens rather than partisan opponents. The pandemic, for all its devastation, offers an opportunity for renewal. Previous generations emerged from crises with strengthened institutions and broader prosperity. The generation coming of age during COVID-19 might similarly develop greater appreciation for community, cooperation, and shared sacrifice. They could decide that if half the nation's population cannot survive 60 days without government assistance, then more forward-looking investments are needed to prevent future emergencies.

Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic served as a powerful accelerant of trends already underway in our economy, technology, and society. It compressed what might have been decades of change into weeks or months, revealing both vulnerabilities and opportunities. The most significant acceleration occurred in digital transformation, where remote work, e-commerce, telemedicine, and online education made leaps that would have normally taken years. Simultaneously, the pandemic accelerated concentration of power and wealth, with big tech companies and other well-positioned firms consolidating their dominance while more vulnerable businesses failed. These accelerated changes offer both warnings and possibilities for our future. They demonstrate the urgent need to rethink outdated systems in education, healthcare, and governance that were already straining before the crisis. They highlight the dangers of economic inequality and the erosion of our sense of common purpose. But they also reveal opportunities for innovation that could create more resilient, accessible systems. By understanding these forces, we can make choices that shape the post-pandemic world in ways that expand opportunity rather than concentrate privilege. The path forward requires balancing the dynamism of markets with the guardrails of effective governance, rebuilding institutions that serve the common good, and rekindling the spirit of shared sacrifice that helped previous generations overcome even greater challenges.

About Author

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Scott Galloway

Scott Galloway is a clinical professor of marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business, and a public speaker, author, and entrepreneur. He was named one of the world's 50 best business school professors by Poets and Quants.

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