Non-Obvious

Non-Obvious Plot Summary

Introduction

We live in a world flooded with information, but true insights remain remarkably scarce. While countless trend reports and business predictions are published each year, most are disappointingly obvious statements of the already apparent or wild guesses about the distant future. This disconnect represents both a challenge and an opportunity for business leaders, marketers, and innovators who need meaningful insights to drive decision-making. Non-obvious thinking is the ability to see what others miss - to identify patterns and connections that reveal the accelerating present rather than making vague projections about a hypothetical future. Through systematic observation, curation, and analysis, we can all develop this skill to uncover meaningful trends that impact how people buy, sell, and believe. By developing the curator's mindset and applying structured methods like the Haystack Method, anyone can learn to filter through noise, identify emerging patterns, and generate insights that drive innovation and competitive advantage in an increasingly complex business landscape.

Chapter 1: The Trend Curator's Mindset: Beyond Obvious Predictions

Most trend predictions are completely useless. This uncomfortable truth stems from several fundamental flaws in how trends are typically identified and presented. Many so-called "trends" are merely extensions of what is already glaringly apparent to everyone, offering no competitive advantage or insight. Others represent wishful thinking by industry insiders with inherent biases, hoping their particular sector will thrive. The most damaging predictions are those that fail to provide any practical application, leaving businesses unable to translate these observations into actionable strategies. The Norwegian billionaire Christian Ringnes offers an instructive metaphor for effective trend curation. Known for his massive collection of over 52,000 miniature liquor bottles, Ringnes faced a dilemma when his wife demanded he either find a purpose for them or sell them. His solution was to create the Mini Bottle Gallery in Oslo, a museum that displays only about 20% of his collection at any time, carefully curated into themed rooms. This thoughtful curation transforms what could be overwhelming noise into meaningful experiences for visitors. This process of transformation – from noise to meaning – illustrates what true trend curation entails. Rather than "spotting" trends that supposedly exist fully formed in the wild, effective trend curators collect numerous disparate observations over time and then organize them into coherent patterns that reveal deeper truths. They aren't specialized experts with narrow focus but curious generalists who continuously gather ideas across multiple disciplines and look for unexpected connections. The key to non-obvious thinking lies in developing a specific mindset characterized by five essential habits. First is curiosity – the willingness to constantly ask questions and seek knowledge outside your comfortable expertise. Second is observation – training yourself to notice details others overlook. Third is fickleness – the ability to move between ideas without becoming fixated on any single one. Fourth is thoughtfulness – taking time to reflect deeply on what you've observed. And fifth is elegance – finding simple, beautiful ways to express complex ideas. Escaping the trap of obvious thinking requires abandoning the myth of the "trend spotter" who magically sees the future. Instead, non-obvious thinking is a disciplined practice of gathering information widely, resisting premature analysis, and eventually synthesizing patterns that others have missed. When properly applied, this approach generates insights that provide genuine competitive advantage by revealing emerging opportunities before they become apparent to everyone else.

Chapter 2: The Haystack Method: Gathering, Aggregating and Elevating Ideas

The Haystack Method overturns the conventional wisdom about finding trends. Rather than seeking a metaphorical "needle in a haystack" – as if trends existed fully formed waiting to be discovered – this approach recognizes that the real work involves gathering pieces of information (the hay) and then creating the needle (the insight) that gives meaning to the collection. This fundamental shift in perspective changes everything about how we approach trend identification. At its core, the Haystack Method consists of five key steps: gathering, aggregating, elevating, naming, and proving. The gathering phase requires collecting stories, examples, and ideas from diverse sources over an extended period. This involves reading widely across industries, attending events, having conversations, consuming "brainful media," and maintaining curiosity about seemingly unrelated topics. The key is creating a system – like a physical folder or digital repository – to store these observations without needing to immediately analyze each one. Aggregating moves beyond simple collection to initial pattern recognition. Here, the focus is on looking for underlying human motivations and behaviors rather than sorting by industries or demographics. For example, stories about Domino's Pizza's marketing campaign, Ally Bank's customer approach, and Aviva insurance might appear unrelated at first glance. However, viewed through the lens of "companies becoming more human," a meaningful pattern emerges. During this phase, it's essential to follow your intuition about connections even when you can't immediately articulate why certain ideas seem related. The elevating phase represents the most challenging conceptual leap in the process. This step involves identifying broader themes that connect multiple clusters of ideas, often across seemingly disparate industries. For instance, observations about healthcare pricing apps, retail store mobile experiences, and fashion rental services might initially seem unrelated. However, elevating reveals they all represent ways consumers are "optimizing" shopping experiences – leading to a trend that might be called "Shoptimization." This step requires looking beyond superficial similarities to identify deeper patterns in human behavior. Naming trends effectively is perhaps the most creative aspect of the Haystack Method. A powerful trend name must be memorable, distinctive, and convey meaning with minimal explanation. Techniques like creating mashups (combining words like "like" and "economics" to form "Likeonomics"), using alliteration ("Partnership Publishing"), or creating slight twists on familiar concepts ("Overquantified Life" instead of "Quantified Self") can make trends more compelling and shareable. The goal is elegance – expressing a complex idea in a simple, memorable way. The final step, proving, involves validating that a proposed trend truly represents an accelerating phenomenon with sufficient examples across multiple industries. This requires asking critical questions: Is the trend truly unique? Is there research supporting it? Are diverse examples emerging across sectors? Will it likely continue into the foreseeable future? This rigorous validation helps distinguish genuine insights from wishful thinking or confirmation bias.

Chapter 3: Proving Trends: Differentiating Between Signals and Noise

The most challenging aspect of trend curation is distinguishing between genuine signals and background noise. Anyone can make bold predictions about the future, but without a disciplined approach to validation, these forecasts amount to little more than guesswork. The proving phase of the Haystack Method addresses this challenge by establishing rigorous criteria for determining which potential trends merit serious consideration. Three essential elements form the foundation of trend validation: idea, impact, and acceleration. The idea component focuses on whether a proposed trend offers a unique description of a shift in culture, business, or behavior that hasn't been widely recognized. Many would-be trends fail at this first hurdle because they merely restate obvious observations or recycle familiar concepts with new terminology. Genuine trends reveal hidden patterns that others have missed or connect existing phenomena in unexpected ways. They transform disparate observations into coherent narratives that explain what's happening beneath the surface of daily events. The impact element examines whether a trend is actually changing behavior. Simply observing an interesting pattern isn't sufficient; there must be evidence that people or organizations are modifying their actions in response to the underlying forces. This might manifest as consumers adopting new purchasing habits, companies adjusting their business models, or institutions developing new policies. Without demonstrable impact, a supposed trend remains merely an interesting observation rather than a meaningful shift in the landscape. Acceleration represents perhaps the most crucial validation criterion. A true trend must show evidence of gathering momentum rather than remaining static or diminishing in significance. This requires examining multiple data points over time to confirm that the pattern is intensifying rather than representing a temporary anomaly or isolated phenomenon. Trends worth following will exhibit increasing adoption, expanding applications across industries, or growing cultural relevance. The case study of "Engineered Addiction" illustrates how this validation process works in practice. The trend began with disparate observations about a mobile game developer removing his addictive app from distribution, research on product design techniques that create habit-forming behaviors, and studies about intentionally addictive food formulations. Initially aggregated under concepts like "Addictive Design," these observations were elevated into a broader recognition that multiple industries were deliberately engineering experiences to be habit-forming or addictive. The naming phase refined this concept into "Engineered Addiction" – a term that captured both the intentionality behind these practices and their psychological impact. Final validation came through additional research confirming this pattern across diverse fields from gambling (slot machine design) to social media (interface features that maximize engagement). Each step moved from isolated observations to a validated trend supported by multiple examples and research findings. What distinguishes this approach from speculative futurism is its emphasis on observing and analyzing the present rather than making sweeping predictions about distant possibilities. By focusing on current signals and requiring rigorous validation, the Haystack Method produces insights that are both meaningful and actionable in the near term. This grounding in observable reality provides a firmer foundation for strategic decision-making than speculative forecasts about technologies or social changes decades in the future.

Chapter 4: Intersection Thinking: Finding Patterns Across Industries

Intersection thinking forms the intellectual core of non-obvious trend discovery. Rather than examining phenomena within the artificial boundaries of traditional industries or disciplines, this approach deliberately seeks connections across seemingly unrelated domains. These intersections often reveal the most powerful insights precisely because they transcend conventional categorization and uncover underlying patterns in human behavior or business dynamics that apply across multiple contexts. Three fundamental principles guide effective intersection thinking. First, see similarities rather than differences. When examining diverse examples, the natural tendency is to focus on what makes them distinct from one another. Intersection thinking inverts this approach by intentionally looking for common patterns. For instance, when former Coca-Cola executive Jeff Dunn became president of Bolthouse Farms, he recognized that baby carrots shared key characteristics with junk food – they were crunchy, brightly colored, portable, and addictive. This unexpected similarity led to the successful "Eat 'Em Like Junk Food" campaign that significantly boosted sales by positioning healthy vegetables within a familiar consumption framework. The second principle involves purposely looking away from your immediate goal. Fixating too narrowly on a specific objective often creates blind spots that prevent recognition of valuable tangential insights. Howard Schultz's famous inspiration for Starbucks came not from directly researching coffee retail but during an unrelated business trip to Milan where he noticed the vibrant espresso bar culture. This serendipitous observation, possible only because he was open to influences outside his primary focus, transformed his business approach. Deliberately exploring adjacent spaces creates opportunities for unexpected discoveries that direct approaches might miss. The third principle encourages wandering into unfamiliar territory. In an era of algorithmic recommendations and filter bubbles, we increasingly encounter only information that aligns with our existing interests and perspectives. Intentional exploration of unfamiliar subjects, industries, or cultures creates exposure to novel ideas that can trigger new connections. This principle explains why travel often generates insights – encountering different ways of living and thinking disrupts established patterns and enables fresh perspectives. Applying this approach to business means regularly engaging with content, people, and experiences outside your professional specialty. The power of intersection thinking becomes most apparent when examining successful innovations. RumChata, a cream liqueur inspired by the traditional Latin American horchata beverage, exemplifies how connecting disparate cultural references (Latin American drinks and dairy-based liqueurs) can create distinctive products that capture consumer interest. While not explicitly using the Haystack Method, the product's success demonstrates how intersectional thinking identifies opportunities others miss by connecting previously unrelated traditions, ingredients, and consumption patterns. Implementing intersection thinking often works best through structured workshops that bring together diverse perspectives around specific business challenges. These workshops create dedicated space for exploration away from daily operational pressures and provide frameworks for applying trend insights to practical business questions. Whether focused on mapping customer journeys, developing brand storytelling, refining business strategy, or enhancing corporate culture, these collaborative sessions transform abstract trend observations into actionable initiatives tailored to specific organizational contexts.

Chapter 5: Making Trends Actionable: Workshops and Application Models

Trends provide little value unless they can be translated into practical applications that drive business decisions, marketing strategies, or product development. The challenge lies not in identifying trends but in making them actionable within specific organizational contexts. Structured workshops offer a powerful methodology for bridging this gap between abstract insights and concrete implementation plans. The Customer Journey Mapping Trend Workshop illustrates how trend insights can transform customer experiences. This approach begins by mapping the six phases of a typical customer journey: pre-awareness, awareness/consideration, comparison/evaluation, purchase/delivery, usage/experience, and advocacy/loyalty. For each phase, participants identify how relevant trends might reshape customer expectations or behavior. For example, a hiking equipment retailer might leverage the Everyday Stardom trend by creating memorable photo opportunities that customers can share on social media, or apply Reverse Retail principles by designing showroom experiences that drive online purchases. This structured analysis ensures trends influence every touchpoint in the customer relationship rather than being confined to isolated marketing initiatives. Brand Storytelling Trend Workshops focus on how emerging trends can strengthen narrative communication. Many organizations struggle with generic, forgettable brand stories that fail to differentiate them in crowded markets. By examining how trends like Glanceable Content or Unperfection might reshape storytelling approaches, these workshops help organizations develop more authentic, compelling narratives. A law firm, for instance, might respond to the Unperfection trend by encouraging attorneys to share personal interests in their professional biographies, making them more approachable and human in an industry often perceived as cold and impersonal. Business Strategy Trend Workshops tackle fundamental questions about business models, revenue streams, and competitive positioning. These sessions often employ techniques like "Model Recreation" (analyzing how successful companies in other industries apply specific trends) or "Tagline Roulette" (comparing competitor messaging to identify differentiation opportunities). By examining trends through these structured frameworks, organizations can identify strategic pivots or innovations that might otherwise remain unexplored. A dental surgery practice, for example, might respond to the Microconsumption trend by developing new payment models that reduce financial barriers to treatment. Corporate Culture Trend Workshops apply trend insights to internal organizational dynamics, addressing challenges in employee engagement, talent acquisition, and workplace experience. As companies increasingly compete for skilled workers, creating distinctive cultures becomes a strategic imperative. These workshops examine how trends might influence hiring practices, mission communication, or daily work experiences. A software company facing high turnover might use the Experimedia trend to create authentic day-in-the-life videos that showcase their workplace culture to potential recruits. Each workshop model follows common principles that maximize effectiveness. Unbiased facilitation ensures discussions remain objective rather than defaulting to predetermined conclusions. A "yes and" approach encourages building on ideas rather than prematurely critiquing them. Thorough preparation provides necessary context and background information. And comprehensive recaps capture insights and action items to maintain momentum after the session concludes. These structured approaches transform trends from interesting observations into strategic assets that drive organizational change. By providing frameworks for systematic application, workshops help teams move beyond the paralysis that often accompanies information overload and develop concrete initiatives that leverage emerging opportunities. The result is a more agile organization capable of adapting to changing circumstances and capitalizing on emerging patterns before competitors recognize their significance.

Chapter 6: Anti-Trends: Understanding the Flip Side of Predictions

For every trend that emerges, there exists a corresponding counter-movement or anti-trend that moves in the opposite direction. This dialectical relationship reveals a fundamental truth about how markets, cultures, and human behaviors evolve – they rarely move uniformly in a single direction but instead develop through tensions between opposing forces. Understanding these anti-trends provides crucial context for interpreting the business landscape and prevents oversimplified conclusions about where things are heading. The Piedmont region of Italy offers a perfect metaphor for this dynamic. Famous for both its rare white truffles and exceptional Barolo wines, the region faces an inescapable agricultural paradox: conditions that produce excellent truffles (wet summers) create poor vintages for wine, while ideal wine-growing conditions (hot, dry summers) yield fewer truffles. This inverse relationship means no single season can optimize both harvests simultaneously. Similarly, market trends often create countervailing forces that balance or challenge dominant movements. Anti-trends emerge through what innovation expert Dan Pink calls "flip thinking" – the deliberate inversion of conventional approaches. When confronted with the trend toward Selfie Confidence and social media sharing, some consumers respond by embracing digital detox and seeking authentic offline connections. As Glanceable Content dominates digital channels with bite-sized information, platforms like Medium.com and Longform.org gain popularity by offering in-depth, thoughtful analysis. These opposing movements don't invalidate the original trends but reveal their boundaries and limitations. The prevalence of anti-trends challenges the notion that trend prediction should aim for universal application. No trend, however powerful, captures the entirety of market behavior or consumer psychology. There will always be segments that move counter to prevailing currents, creating opportunities for differentiation through deliberate contrarianism. Companies that recognize when to align with dominant trends and when to embrace their opposites gain strategic flexibility that purely trend-following organizations lack. This understanding creates a powerful strategic option: intentionally breaking trends can sometimes provide competitive advantage. Just as Picasso advised learning rules before breaking them artistically, organizations can leverage their understanding of trends to deliberately move against them when appropriate. This approach requires deep knowledge of both the trend and its counter-movement to identify precisely where contrarian positioning might resonate with specific market segments. The existence of anti-trends doesn't diminish the value of trend curation but rather enhances it by providing a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics. Effective trend analysis acknowledges these countervailing forces and incorporates them into strategic thinking. Rather than presenting trends as absolute movements that will reshape entire industries, sophisticated analysis recognizes the tensions between opposing forces and identifies where specific approaches might prove most effective. This dialectical perspective transforms trend analysis from simplistic prediction to nuanced interpretation of complex systems. It acknowledges that markets evolve through the interplay of thesis and antithesis rather than through linear progression in a single direction. Organizations that master this complexity can navigate changing landscapes more effectively than those seeking absolute certainty about future directions.

Chapter 7: The Longevity Test: Evaluating Trend Predictions Over Time

The ultimate test of any trend prediction is its accuracy and relevance over time. Unlike traditional forecasting, which often makes dramatic claims about distant futures without accountability, non-obvious trend curation demands rigorous retrospective evaluation. This commitment to honest assessment distinguishes serious trend analysis from the entertainment of futurism and provides invaluable learning opportunities for improving predictive accuracy. The evaluation process begins with establishing clear criteria for measuring trend longevity. A trend's durability can be assessed through three primary dimensions: continued presence, accelerating impact, and expanding application. Continued presence examines whether the underlying pattern remains observable years after initial identification. Accelerating impact measures whether the trend's influence has grown stronger or weaker over time. Expanding application considers whether the trend has spread to additional industries or contexts beyond its original domain. When applying these criteria to past trend predictions, patterns emerge that distinguish enduring insights from transient observations. Trends grounded in fundamental human needs or behaviors typically demonstrate greater longevity than those based on specific technologies or platforms. For example, the 2011 trend "Likeonomics" – which described how brands gain advantage through being more human and personally likeable – has remained relevant because it addresses the timeless human desire for authentic connections. Similarly, "Brutal Transparency" from the same year correctly anticipated the growing consumer expectation for corporate honesty that continues to reshape business communications. Other predictions show mixed results or reveal the need for more precise formulation. The 2012 trend "Pointillist Filmmaking" – which described collaborative video creation through merging many short clips – proved too narrowly defined to capture broader shifts in media production. Meanwhile, "Social Loneliness" from the same year correctly identified growing disconnection despite digital connectivity but underestimated how quickly new platforms would emerge to address this challenge. This retrospective analysis reveals several patterns that characterize the most durable trend predictions. First, trends based on fundamental human motivations (connection, recognition, self-improvement) consistently outperform those tied to specific technologies or platforms. Second, trends that identify early signals of structural economic or social changes typically demonstrate greater longevity than those capturing momentary cultural phenomena. Third, trends described with sufficient specificity to be actionable yet broad enough to encompass evolving manifestations tend to remain relevant longer than either overly narrow or excessively general predictions. The practice of systematically evaluating past predictions serves multiple purposes beyond simply scoring predictive accuracy. It provides essential feedback for refining trend curation methodologies, helps identify recurring patterns in successful predictions, and builds intellectual honesty by acknowledging both successes and failures. This accountability distinguishes serious trend analysis from consequence-free futurism and creates a continuous improvement cycle that enhances predictive reliability over time. Perhaps most importantly, this commitment to evaluation embodies the "fox" mindset described by researcher Philip Tetlock in his studies of expert prediction. Foxes – who maintain multiple perspectives, express appropriate uncertainty, and willingly acknowledge errors – consistently outperform "hedgehogs" who adhere dogmatically to single explanatory theories. By embracing this intellectual flexibility and maintaining openness to correction, trend curators develop more nuanced understanding of how markets and societies evolve.

Summary

Non-obvious thinking represents a critical skill in an age of information overload and accelerating change. Through systematic observation, curation, and analysis, we can train ourselves to see patterns that others miss and develop insights that drive strategic advantage. The Haystack Method provides a structured approach for gathering diverse observations over time, identifying meaningful connections between seemingly unrelated phenomena, and validating emerging patterns before they become widely recognized. The true value of trend curation lies not in making dramatic predictions about distant futures but in developing a deeper understanding of the present moment. By cultivating the curator's mindset – characterized by curiosity, observation, fickleness, thoughtfulness, and elegance – anyone can enhance their ability to detect significant patterns amid noise. When combined with structured application frameworks like trend workshops, these insights become powerful tools for reimagining customer experiences, crafting compelling brand narratives, and identifying strategic opportunities that competitors might overlook. Mastering this approach transforms our relationship with an uncertain future from anxious speculation to confident navigation based on clearer understanding of the forces shaping our world.

About Author

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Rohit Bhargava

Rohit Bhargava is a leading authority on marketing, trends and innovation. He is the founder of the Non-Obvious Company and is widely considered one of the most entertaining and original keynote speakers on marketing disruption and innovation in the world. He is the #1 WSJ and USA TODAY bestselling author of eight books on topics as wide ranging as the future of business, building a human brand with personality, and how to create a more diverse and inclusive world. Rohit is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and writes a monthly column for GQ Brazil. He is married and lives with his wife and two boys in the Washington DC area, loves the Olympics and actively hates cauliflower.

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