On Saudi Arabia

On Saudi Arabia Plot Summary

Introduction

The vast deserts of the Arabian Peninsula have witnessed one of the most remarkable transformations in modern history. A century ago, the region was home to scattered tribes living much as their ancestors had for millennia. Today, gleaming skyscrapers rise from the sands, funded by immense oil wealth that has catapulted Saudi Arabia onto the global stage. Yet beneath this dramatic physical transformation lies a society still deeply rooted in religious tradition and tribal customs, creating tensions that define modern Saudi life. The story of Saudi Arabia is one of extraordinary contradictions: a medieval governance system attempting to function in the modern world; a young population ruled by aging monarchs; immense wealth alongside growing economic challenges. These contradictions have created a kingdom at a crossroads, facing pressures from within and without that threaten its stability. Understanding these dynamics offers crucial insights not just into Saudi Arabia's future, but into the broader challenges facing traditional societies in a rapidly changing world.

Chapter 1: The Religious-Political Foundations: The Wahhabi-Al Saud Alliance

The modern Saudi state emerged from a powerful alliance forged in the 18th century between two ambitious men with complementary visions. Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, a puritanical religious reformer, joined forces with Muhammad ibn Saud, a tribal leader with military ambitions. This partnership created a formidable combination: religious zeal provided ideological justification while tribal warriors supplied the military might. Together, they established a state founded on a particularly strict interpretation of Islam that continues to shape Saudi society today. This alliance established a governing principle that remains fundamental to Saudi Arabia: the Al Saud family rules political affairs while the religious establishment controls social and cultural life. The religious scholars, or ulama, provide legitimacy to the royal family by declaring them the rightful guardians of Islam's holy places. In return, the Al Saud enforce religious dictates and protect the conservative social order. This symbiotic relationship has weathered numerous challenges over the centuries, proving remarkably resilient even as other traditional monarchies in the region have fallen. The religious establishment maintains extensive control over daily life in Saudi Arabia through a network of institutions. Religious courts apply sharia law to everything from commercial disputes to family matters. The educational system emphasizes religious instruction, with significant portions of the curriculum devoted to Islamic studies. The religious police, though less visible in recent years, have traditionally enforced public morality, ensuring compliance with prayer times, modest dress, and gender segregation. This pervasive religious influence creates a social environment that reinforces traditional values and discourages dissent. For the Al Saud, religious legitimacy serves as a crucial pillar of authority. As custodians of Islam's two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, the royal family claims a special status within the Muslim world. Domestically, this religious mantle helps justify their absolute rule, as they present themselves as defenders of Islamic tradition against corrupting foreign influences. However, this religious legitimacy comes with constraints, as the royal family must maintain at least the appearance of Islamic piety and cannot implement reforms that might alienate the religious establishment. The Wahhabi-Al Saud alliance has faced growing strains in recent decades. The religious establishment itself has fractured between hardliners who resist any change and pragmatists who recognize the need for adaptation. Meanwhile, exposure to global media and education has led many Saudis, particularly the younger generation, to question traditional religious interpretations. The royal family increasingly finds itself caught between religious conservatives demanding continued adherence to strict social norms and modernizers pushing for greater openness. How the monarchy navigates these competing pressures will determine whether the foundational alliance that created Saudi Arabia can survive in the 21st century.

Chapter 2: Oil Wealth and Social Control: Building the Modern Saudi State

The discovery of oil in 1938 transformed Saudi Arabia from an impoverished desert kingdom into a global financial powerhouse. When American geologists struck oil at Dammam Well No. 7, they unleashed a torrent of wealth that would reshape not just Saudi Arabia but the entire Middle East. King Abdul Aziz, who had unified the kingdom through military conquest and strategic marriages, suddenly found himself with resources beyond imagination. This newfound wealth allowed the royal family to build a modern state infrastructure while simultaneously strengthening their control over the population. Oil revenue enabled the creation of a comprehensive welfare state that forms the core of the Saudi social contract. The government provides free education, healthcare, subsidized utilities, and generous public sector employment to citizens. These benefits effectively purchase political acquiescence, as most Saudis have material incentives to support the status quo. When discontent does emerge, the government can typically respond with additional financial benefits rather than political concessions. During the Arab Spring uprisings that toppled regimes across the region, King Abdullah announced a $130 billion spending package that helped insulate Saudi Arabia from similar protests. The Saudi state uses oil wealth to maintain an elaborate system of patronage that extends from the highest levels of society to the lowest. Royal family members receive generous stipends and business opportunities, creating a vast network of princes with personal stakes in the system's continuation. Tribal leaders receive development projects for their regions and positions within the government bureaucracy. Religious scholars receive funding for mosques and Islamic universities. Even ordinary citizens benefit from government contracts and employment opportunities distributed through personal connections. This web of financial dependency makes organized opposition extremely difficult. Beyond direct economic benefits, oil wealth funds an extensive security apparatus that monitors and suppresses dissent. The Ministry of Interior employs thousands of security personnel and intelligence officers who track potential opposition figures both inside the kingdom and abroad. Sophisticated surveillance technology purchased from Western companies allows the government to monitor social media, intercept communications, and identify critics. Those who cross red lines face consequences ranging from travel bans and job loss to imprisonment and, in extreme cases, execution. This combination of surveillance and punishment creates a climate of fear that discourages political activism. The education system, generously funded by oil revenues, serves as another mechanism of social control. Saudi schools emphasize rote memorization over critical thinking, with significant portions of the curriculum devoted to religious instruction that reinforces traditional values and obedience to authority. Higher education expanded dramatically in recent decades, with dozens of new universities built across the kingdom. However, these institutions often produce graduates with degrees ill-suited to private sector employment, creating a population dependent on government jobs and therefore reluctant to challenge the system that employs them. While oil wealth has enabled remarkable stability, it has also created vulnerabilities that are becoming increasingly apparent. The Saudi population has grown exponentially, from around 3 million in 1950 to over 35 million today, stretching the government's ability to provide benefits. Oil price volatility has repeatedly forced painful budget cuts, undermining the social contract. Most concerning for the long term, global shifts toward renewable energy threaten the foundation of Saudi wealth and power. These economic pressures are forcing the royal family to reconsider the oil-based social control model that has sustained their rule for generations.

Chapter 3: Youth Discontent and Generational Divide in a Changing Society

Saudi Arabia is experiencing a profound demographic transformation that challenges traditional power structures and social norms. With over 60 percent of the population under thirty years of age, the kingdom is essentially a young country ruled by an aging elite. This generational divide manifests in dramatically different life experiences and expectations. The older generation grew up during the kingdom's transition from poverty to prosperity, witnessing the tangible benefits of oil wealth and maintaining strong connections to tribal and religious traditions. In contrast, young Saudis have known only relative affluence and are increasingly connected to global youth culture through social media and international education. Unemployment represents the most pressing concern for Saudi youth, with rates estimated between 25 and 40 percent among young adults. Despite billions spent on education, including generous scholarships for study abroad, Saudi schools and universities fail to produce graduates with skills matched to labor market demands. Many young Saudis hold degrees in religious studies, humanities, or social sciences but lack the technical and professional capabilities sought by employers. Meanwhile, the public sector, traditionally the employer of first resort, can no longer absorb the growing number of job seekers. This economic frustration creates a dangerous reservoir of discontent that could potentially be channeled into political opposition. The internet has fundamentally altered young Saudis' relationship with authority and information. Saudi Arabia has one of the world's highest rates of social media usage, with platforms like Twitter, YouTube, and Snapchat serving as virtual public squares where young people can express themselves with relative freedom. Online, young Saudis encounter perspectives that challenge official narratives about religion, politics, and social norms. They can follow exiled dissidents, engage with global youth movements, and access banned content through virtual private networks. This digital awakening has created an unprecedented generation gap in worldview between young Saudis and their parents or grandparents. Young Saudi women stand at the forefront of social change, pushing boundaries in ways that would have been unimaginable a generation ago. Better educated than their mothers and increasingly aware of women's rights globally, they are challenging traditional gender restrictions with unprecedented boldness. The successful campaign against the driving ban, which ended in 2018, demonstrated women's growing willingness to advocate for their rights. Young women are entering new professional fields, starting businesses, and participating in public life despite continuing restrictions. Their aspirations for greater autonomy represent perhaps the most significant challenge to the traditional social order. Religious attitudes among Saudi youth reflect complex and sometimes contradictory trends. While many young Saudis remain deeply committed to Islam as a faith, they increasingly question the strict Wahhabi interpretations that have dominated Saudi society. Young people distinguish between core religious values and cultural traditions that have been presented as religious requirements. They question why practices forbidden in Saudi Arabia are permitted in other Muslim countries. This religious questioning rarely translates into secularism but instead represents a desire for a more moderate and personally meaningful religious experience that accommodates modern life. The Saudi leadership has responded to youth discontent with a mixture of concessions and control. Recent reforms allowing concerts, movie theaters, and mixed-gender public events acknowledge young people's desire for entertainment and social interaction. Economic initiatives like Vision 2030 promise to create private sector opportunities for young Saudis. At the same time, authorities have cracked down harshly on youth activism that crosses into political territory, making clear that social liberalization will not include political rights. This combination of cultural opening and political repression represents an attempt to address youth frustrations without surrendering control, a balancing act that grows more challenging as the youth population continues to expand.

Chapter 4: Royal Succession Crisis: The Challenge of Leadership Transition

The Saudi monarchy faces an unprecedented succession challenge that threatens the stability of the entire system. Since the death of the kingdom's founder, King Abdul Aziz, in 1953, the crown has passed sequentially from one of his sons to another. This horizontal succession among brothers has provided continuity but is now reaching its natural conclusion as the remaining sons of Abdul Aziz are elderly and infirm. The inevitable transition to the next generation – the grandsons of the founder – represents a critical juncture that could either reinvigorate the monarchy or trigger destructive power struggles within the royal family. The Al Saud family is far from monolithic, with various branches competing for influence and resources. The Sudairi Seven – a powerful bloc of full brothers that included the late King Fahd – have traditionally dominated key positions in government. Other branches of the family fear marginalization if power becomes concentrated within a single line of descent. These internal rivalries are typically managed through careful distribution of government positions and economic opportunities. However, the generational transition raises the stakes dramatically, as whichever branch secures the throne could potentially establish a vertical succession pattern, passing power from father to son rather than brother to brother, effectively excluding other branches permanently. King Abdullah attempted to manage the succession challenge by establishing the Allegiance Council in 2007, a formal body composed of senior princes tasked with approving future monarchs. This innovation was designed to create a more transparent and consensual process for choosing leaders, replacing the previous informal system of family negotiations. However, the council's effectiveness remains questionable, as subsequent succession decisions have demonstrated that personal power still outweighs institutional procedures. The death of two crown princes in rapid succession during Abdullah's reign further complicated the transition planning and highlighted the vulnerability of elderly leadership. The current leadership configuration, with King Salman and his son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MBS), represents a dramatic departure from traditional Saudi succession patterns. By appointing his relatively young son as crown prince, King Salman effectively accelerated the generational transition while concentrating power within his immediate family line. This move sidelined numerous princes with arguably stronger claims to the throne based on age, experience, or maternal lineage. The consolidation of power under MBS has alienated significant segments of the royal family, creating potential opposition that could emerge more forcefully after King Salman's death. Succession uncertainty creates policy paralysis at precisely the moment when decisive leadership is most needed. The kingdom faces enormous challenges including economic diversification, youth unemployment, religious extremism, and regional conflicts. Addressing these issues requires long-term planning and potentially painful reforms that may generate short-term opposition. However, the perception that the current leadership arrangement remains contested makes officials throughout the government hesitant to fully commit to controversial initiatives. This institutional caution prevents the kingdom from effectively responding to rapidly evolving threats and opportunities. The Saudi public watches the succession drama with a mixture of concern and resignation. While ordinary Saudis have no formal role in selecting their leaders, they understand that the character and vision of the next ruler will profoundly affect their lives. Many hope for a younger, more dynamic leadership that can modernize the economy while preserving the kingdom's Islamic identity. Others fear that succession struggles could lead to instability or even civil conflict. In a society where political discussion remains largely taboo, these concerns simmer beneath the surface of public discourse, creating additional tension in an already stressed system.

Chapter 5: Foreign Policy Dilemmas: Balancing US Relations and Regional Rivalries

Saudi foreign policy operates according to a single overriding principle: ensuring the survival of the House of Saud. Unlike nations that base their international relations on some consensus definition of national interests, Saudi Arabia's foreign engagements are primarily designed to protect the ruling family's grip on power. This singular focus creates a foreign policy that often appears contradictory to outside observers but makes perfect sense when viewed through the lens of regime preservation. The kingdom's leaders constantly calibrate their international relationships to maintain internal stability and external security, even when these objectives conflict. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States forms the cornerstone of Saudi security strategy. Since President Franklin Roosevelt met with King Abdul Aziz aboard the USS Quincy in 1945, the two countries have maintained what is often described as an "oil for security" arrangement. Saudi Arabia ensures a steady supply of oil to global markets at reasonable prices, while the United States provides military protection against external threats. This partnership has survived numerous challenges, including the 1973 oil embargo, the aftermath of the September 11 attacks (in which fifteen of the nineteen hijackers were Saudi nationals), and disagreements over the Iraq War, the Arab Spring, and the Iran nuclear deal. Iran represents Saudi Arabia's primary regional rival and security threat. The two powers are engaged in a multi-dimensional struggle for influence across the Middle East, complicated by sectarian differences between Saudi Arabia's Sunni establishment and Iran's Shiite leadership. The 1979 Iranian Revolution transformed a once-friendly neighbor into an ideological adversary that explicitly challenged the legitimacy of the Saudi monarchy. Since then, Saudi Arabia has viewed virtually all regional developments through the prism of Iranian containment. From Lebanon to Yemen, Iraq to Bahrain, the Saudis have worked to counter Iranian influence through financial support to allied governments and non-state actors, diplomatic isolation of Iran, and occasionally direct military intervention. The kingdom has diversified its international partnerships in recent years, reducing its exclusive dependence on American security guarantees. Saudi Arabia has strengthened ties with China, which has become the largest purchaser of Saudi oil, and with Russia, despite the latter's alliance with Iran in Syria. These relationships serve both as economic hedges against declining Western oil demand and as diplomatic insurance should U.S. commitment to Saudi security waver. The kingdom has also invested heavily in building relationships with emerging powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa, recognizing that global influence is shifting away from traditional Western centers. Saudi Arabia's promotion of conservative Wahhabist Islam around the world has created significant foreign policy complications. For decades, the kingdom funded mosques, religious schools, and Islamic charities globally, spreading its puritanical interpretation of Islam. This religious outreach was initially seen as a way to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War and later Iranian revolutionary ideology. However, these efforts inadvertently contributed to the rise of extremist groups that eventually turned against the Saudi regime itself. Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent terrorist incidents within the kingdom, Saudi authorities have attempted to rein in the most extreme forms of religious exportation while maintaining their claim to Islamic leadership. The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 presented a profound challenge to Saudi foreign policy. The overthrow of longstanding authoritarian leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya raised the specter of similar uprisings in the Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia responded by supporting counter-revolutionary forces across the region, most notably by sending troops to help suppress protests in neighboring Bahrain. The kingdom also provided billions in aid to Egypt's military government after it ousted the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government. These interventions reflected the Saudi leadership's determination to prevent revolutionary contagion from reaching its borders, even at the cost of contradicting Western democratic values and alienating segments of Arab public opinion.

Chapter 6: Economic Vulnerabilities: The Limits of Oil Dependency

Saudi Arabia's economy stands at a critical crossroads, facing challenges that threaten the very foundations of the kingdom's social contract. For decades, oil wealth has allowed the government to provide citizens with generous benefits while demanding little in return. Free education, healthcare, subsidized utilities, and guaranteed government employment have created a population dependent on state largesse rather than productive enterprise. This rentier economic model is becoming increasingly unsustainable as oil revenues struggle to keep pace with a rapidly growing population and rising expectations. The kingdom's overwhelming dependence on petroleum represents its greatest economic vulnerability. Despite numerous development plans calling for diversification, oil still accounts for approximately 80 percent of export revenues and the vast majority of government income. This dependence leaves Saudi Arabia dangerously exposed to oil price fluctuations beyond its control. The 2014-2016 price collapse forced painful budget cuts, depleted financial reserves, and necessitated the kingdom's first international bond offerings. Even more concerning for the long term, global shifts toward renewable energy and climate policies threaten to permanently reduce demand for Saudi Arabia's primary asset. Saudi Arabia's labor market exhibits profound structural problems that resist easy solutions. Nearly 90 percent of private sector jobs are held by foreign workers, while Saudi unemployment remains stubbornly high, particularly among youth and women. This paradox exists because many Saudis consider manual or service jobs beneath their dignity, while employers often find Saudi workers more expensive and less productive than foreign alternatives. Government efforts to "Saudize" the workforce through quotas and restrictions on foreign labor have achieved limited success. The fundamental challenge remains creating private sector jobs that offer the status, security, and compensation Saudis have come to expect from government employment. Women represent a vastly underutilized economic resource. Despite comprising the majority of university graduates, women make up only about 20 percent of the Saudi workforce. Religious restrictions on gender mixing in workplaces, requirements for male guardianship, and limited transportation options have traditionally prevented women from fully participating in economic life. Recent reforms allowing women to drive and work in some previously restricted fields represent progress but have not yet translated into significant employment gains. Fully integrating women into the economy would require challenging religious conservatives who remain powerful stakeholders in the Saudi system. The kingdom's bureaucracy has become a significant obstacle to economic development. Overlapping jurisdictions, excessive red tape, and corruption create an environment hostile to entrepreneurship and private investment. Starting a business requires navigating a labyrinth of permissions from multiple ministries, often necessitating personal connections or bribes. Meanwhile, government decision-making is painfully slow, with even approved projects frequently stalled by bureaucratic inertia. This administrative dysfunction prevents the economy from responding nimbly to changing circumstances and discourages the innovation needed for genuine diversification. Vision 2030, the ambitious reform plan launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, represents the most serious attempt yet to transform the Saudi economy. The plan calls for privatizing state assets, developing non-oil industries, creating a more dynamic private sector, and reducing public sector employment. The centerpiece of this vision was to be the public offering of shares in Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, valued at up to $2 trillion. However, implementation has proven challenging, with many initiatives scaled back or delayed. The fundamental tension in Saudi economic reform remains unresolved: meaningful economic change would require political and social liberalization that could threaten the royal family's absolute control.

Summary

Saudi Arabia finds itself caught in a web of contradictions that threaten its long-term stability. The kingdom's traditional governance model – absolute monarchy legitimized by religious authority and funded by oil wealth – faces unprecedented pressures from multiple directions. Externally, fluctuating oil prices, regional conflicts, and shifting global power dynamics challenge Saudi security and prosperity. Internally, a youthful population with modern aspirations chafes against religious restrictions and limited economic opportunities. The leadership must somehow modernize the economy and society without undermining the very foundations of royal authority. The coming decade will likely determine whether Saudi Arabia can navigate a transition to a more sustainable model or faces increasing instability. Success would require threading an extremely narrow needle: economic diversification without political liberalization; religious moderation without secularization; youth engagement without genuine empowerment. The more probable outcome is continued incremental reform that fails to address fundamental structural problems, leading to growing frustration among Saudi citizens. How the kingdom manages the inevitable tensions between tradition and change, between religious legitimacy and economic necessity, will have profound implications not just for Saudis but for the entire Middle East and global energy markets.

About Author

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Karen Elliott House

KAREN HOUSE is a graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. She studied and taught at Harvard University's Institute of Politics and holds honorary degrees from Boston University (2003) and Lafayette College (1992). She was also a senior fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

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