The Way Back

The Way Back Plot Summary

Introduction

Economic mobility—the ability to rise above one's circumstances through hard work and determination—has long been central to American identity. This fundamental promise that anyone can achieve success regardless of their starting point has defined American exceptionalism for generations. Yet mounting evidence suggests this promise has been broken. The United States now ranks among the least economically mobile developed nations, with children's economic futures increasingly determined by their parents' economic status rather than their own merit or effort. This mobility crisis threatens not just economic prosperity but the very social cohesion and democratic stability that underpin American society. The crisis of declining mobility transcends traditional political divides, offering a rare opportunity for consensus in our polarized era. While inequality has typically been a concern of the political left, the breakdown of opportunity pathways should alarm conservatives and libertarians equally. Evidence from more mobile societies demonstrates that economic freedom and social mobility can coexist and reinforce each other when supported by appropriate institutions. By examining the structural barriers that have calcified America's class system—from educational stratification to regulatory capture to the emergence of a self-perpetuating elite—we can identify concrete policy solutions that would restore America's promise of opportunity for all.

Chapter 1: The Decline of American Economic Mobility: Evidence and Implications

Economic mobility in America has deteriorated significantly over recent decades, transforming the nation from a land of opportunity to one of the least mobile societies in the developed world. Statistical measures reveal this stark reality: with an immobility score of 0.47 (where higher numbers indicate less mobility), the United States trails behind most European nations and significantly behind Canada's 0.19. This means that American children's economic futures are now much more tightly bound to their parents' economic status than in comparable nations. The consequences of this decline extend far beyond dry statistics. When children born to low-income parents have little chance of advancement, and those born to wealthy parents remain wealthy regardless of merit, the fundamental promise of American society is broken. This immobility coincides with rising income inequality, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that threatens social cohesion. Communities become increasingly segregated by income and opportunity, civic participation declines, and trust in institutions erodes. These trends ultimately undermine the stability of democratic governance itself. What makes this situation particularly concerning is that other developed nations maintain significantly higher rates of economic mobility. Canada, which shares many cultural and economic characteristics with the United States, demonstrates that greater mobility is achievable in a modern economy. The stark contrast between these neighboring countries suggests that policy choices, not inevitable economic forces, have created America's mobility crisis. This comparative perspective offers both hope and direction for potential reforms. The political implications of declining mobility became evident in recent elections. The 2012 presidential campaign revealed how economic insecurity and the perception of a "rigged system" resonated with voters across the political spectrum. When six in ten Americans believe the American Dream is out of reach, something fundamental has shifted in the national consciousness. This shift helps explain the populist movements that have emerged on both the political right and left, as citizens increasingly question whether the economic system works for ordinary people. The mobility crisis also carries profound moral implications. A society where success depends primarily on the accident of birth rather than individual merit or effort cannot claim to be just. When talented individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds face insurmountable barriers to advancement, society loses their potential contributions. Meanwhile, mediocre individuals from privileged backgrounds often occupy positions beyond their capabilities, reducing economic efficiency and innovation. The result is not just unfair but wasteful—a squandering of human potential that diminishes prosperity for all.

Chapter 2: The Great Gatsby Curve: How Inequality Undermines Opportunity

The Great Gatsby Curve, named after F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel about the illusory nature of the American Dream, illustrates a powerful relationship between income inequality and intergenerational mobility. This curve, first identified by economist Alan Krueger, shows that countries with higher levels of income inequality consistently demonstrate lower levels of economic mobility. The United States occupies a troubling position on this curve, with both high inequality and low mobility compared to other developed nations. This relationship is not merely correlational but causal. As the distance between socioeconomic rungs widens, climbing from bottom to top becomes increasingly difficult. Several mechanisms drive this pattern. First, residential segregation intensifies as inequality grows, creating geographic concentrations of advantage and disadvantage. Children in affluent neighborhoods benefit from better schools, safer environments, and positive peer influences, while those in disadvantaged areas face multiple barriers to advancement. This spatial inequality means that opportunity becomes increasingly determined by zip code rather than individual potential. Educational systems further reinforce these disparities. As inequality rises, affluent families invest more heavily in their children's education through private schools, tutoring, enrichment activities, and college preparation. Meanwhile, public education systems often provide fewer resources to schools serving low-income communities, precisely where additional support is most needed. The result is an educational playing field that slopes steeply upward for those already advantaged. Higher education, once a reliable path to upward mobility, has become increasingly stratified, with elite institutions functioning as gatekeepers to prestigious careers while remaining disproportionately accessible to children from affluent backgrounds. Social capital—the networks of relationships that provide information, influence, and opportunities—also becomes more concentrated as inequality rises. Children from advantaged backgrounds inherit not just financial resources but connections that open doors throughout their lives. From internship opportunities to job referrals to business partnerships, these social networks create pathways to advancement that remain largely invisible yet powerfully effective. Those without such connections must overcome additional hurdles at every stage, regardless of their talents or efforts. Political systems respond differently to citizens based on their economic status, with policy outcomes more closely reflecting the preferences of affluent voters and organized interest groups than those of middle-class or poor Americans. As inequality increases, political power becomes more concentrated among economic elites, creating a feedback loop where policies further entrench advantage rather than expanding opportunity. This democratic deficit helps explain why the United States has been less successful than other developed nations in implementing policies that promote mobility, from early childhood education to affordable healthcare to worker protections. The Great Gatsby Curve challenges fundamental assumptions about the relationship between inequality and opportunity. While some inequality may be necessary to reward effort and talent, extreme inequality appears to undermine the very meritocracy it supposedly reflects. Countries with more moderate levels of inequality, like Canada, Denmark, and Australia, consistently demonstrate higher levels of economic mobility while maintaining the market incentives necessary for economic dynamism. Their success suggests that addressing America's mobility crisis requires confronting its extreme inequality through policies that expand opportunity without sacrificing prosperity.

Chapter 3: Education's Failure as the Great Equalizer

Education has long been viewed as the primary mechanism through which individuals can transcend their circumstances of birth. However, America's educational system increasingly functions not as an equalizer but as a sorting mechanism that reinforces existing advantages and disadvantages. This transformation represents perhaps the most significant failure in America's mobility ecosystem, as the institution most central to opportunity has become complicit in its denial. The divergence begins in early childhood, where developmental gaps emerge well before formal schooling begins. By age three, children from high-income families have heard approximately 30 million more words than children from low-income families, creating a vocabulary gap that persists throughout schooling. Affluent parents can invest in high-quality preschool, enrichment activities, and educational resources that accelerate cognitive development. These early advantages compound over time, as children who enter kindergarten already ahead tend to make faster progress than their peers who start behind. K-12 education, rather than compensating for these initial disparities, often magnifies them through the mechanism of residential segregation. Public schools are primarily funded through local property taxes, creating a system where wealthy communities can invest substantially more in their schools than poor communities. The result is dramatic resource inequality: high-poverty schools often have less experienced teachers, larger class sizes, fewer advanced courses, and inferior facilities compared to schools in affluent areas. Despite decades of school reform efforts, these structural inequalities remain largely unaddressed. Higher education has experienced a similar transformation from mobility engine to stratification system. Elite universities function as gatekeepers to prestigious careers, yet their student bodies remain disproportionately drawn from the upper socioeconomic strata. At the most selective colleges, students from the top income quartile outnumber those from the bottom quartile by a ratio of 14 to 1. Legacy admissions, athletic recruitment preferences, and advantages for children of donors directly transmit privilege across generations. Meanwhile, rising tuition costs and student debt burdens have made college less accessible to low-income students, even as the economic penalty for not attending college has grown. Educational stratification has accelerated through what sociologists call "effectively maintained inequality." As each level of education becomes more universal, advantaged families find new ways to secure relative advantages for their children. When high school completion became common, the distinction shifted to college attendance. As college attendance expanded, the prestige of the institution became more important. As elite college attendance normalized among the upper-middle class, graduate degrees and specific majors became new differentiators. This constant recalibration of educational markers ensures that privileged families can maintain their children's relative position even as formal educational attainment rises across society. International comparisons highlight that educational mobility need not be so tightly linked to family background. Countries like Finland, Canada, and South Korea have educational systems that produce more equitable outcomes while maintaining high standards. These systems typically feature more centralized funding formulas that direct resources to disadvantaged schools, strong early childhood programs, and affordable higher education. Their success suggests that policy choices, not immutable economic forces, determine the degree to which education serves as an engine of mobility or a mechanism for reproducing inequality.

Chapter 4: The New Class: How America's Elite Preserves Its Advantages

America's contemporary class structure has produced a distinctive elite that, while ostensibly meritocratic, has become remarkably effective at preserving and transmitting advantages across generations. This "New Class" differs from traditional aristocracies in deriving status primarily from educational credentials and professional positions rather than inherited titles or land ownership. Yet it functions similarly in creating barriers to entry and ensuring that its children maintain privileged positions regardless of individual merit. Evolutionary psychology helps explain why such aristocracies naturally emerge. Parents instinctively seek advantages for their children—what economists call the "bequest motive." Studies indicate that nearly 80% of total savings represents transfers to future generations rather than personal consumption. This parental drive combines with "relative preferences"—the desire not just for absolute wealth but for superior status compared to others. Together, these forces create powerful incentives for elites to preserve their children's advantages, even at society's expense. Geographic concentration reinforces class solidarity among the new elite. Affluent professionals increasingly cluster in specific metropolitan areas and neighborhoods, creating what journalist Bill Bishop calls the "big sort." This residential segregation has accelerated in recent decades, with college-educated workers concentrating in a handful of prosperous cities while less-educated workers remain in declining regions. The result is not just economic separation but cultural and social division, as these different Americas develop distinct lifestyles, values, and worldviews with decreasing interaction between them. The New Class maintains its position through what sociologists call "opportunity hoarding"—monopolizing access to valuable resources and positions. This occurs through various mechanisms, from legacy preferences in college admissions to unpaid internships that favor those who can afford to work without compensation. Professional licensing requirements, ostensibly designed to ensure quality, often function primarily to restrict competition. Meanwhile, zoning regulations in affluent communities effectively exclude lower-income families from neighborhoods with good schools and other amenities, preserving these resources for the already advantaged. Cultural capital serves as another powerful mechanism for class reproduction. The New Class transmits to its children not just financial resources but the tastes, mannerisms, and knowledge that signal elite status. From appreciation of high culture to familiarity with global cuisines to comfort in formal institutional settings, these cultural markers function as passwords that grant access to elite spaces. Those lacking this cultural capital, regardless of their intelligence or abilities, often find themselves subtly excluded from opportunities for advancement, their "wrong" tastes or speech patterns marking them as outsiders. Political allegiance has increasingly become what evolutionary biologists call a "green beard"—a trait that allows cooperators to recognize each other and form alliances. The New Class displays distinctive political preferences that signal group membership, with wealthy, educated counties disproportionately voting for candidates who reflect their social values while protecting their economic interests. This political sorting enables elites to maintain solidarity across partisan divides, ensuring that regardless of which party holds power, policies that might threaten their advantages face significant resistance.

Chapter 5: Regulatory Barriers That Protect Incumbents and Block Advancement

Regulatory frameworks, ostensibly designed to protect public welfare, often function as formidable barriers to economic advancement for those without established privilege. These barriers take various forms, from occupational licensing requirements to zoning regulations to complex compliance regimes, and their cumulative effect is to protect incumbents while limiting opportunities for newcomers and innovators. Occupational licensing has expanded dramatically over the past half-century, now covering approximately 25% of the American workforce, up from just 5% in the 1950s. While licensing serves legitimate public safety purposes in some fields, its requirements often exceed what is necessary for consumer protection. For example, hair braiders in some states must complete thousands of hours of cosmetology training that has little relevance to their craft. These requirements impose significant costs in time and money that disproportionately burden low-income individuals seeking to enter these occupations. Studies consistently show that licensing reduces employment in regulated occupations and increases consumer prices without necessarily improving service quality. Zoning regulations similarly function as barriers to economic opportunity, particularly in high-productivity cities. Restrictive zoning in places like San Francisco, New York, and Boston artificially constrains housing supply, driving up housing costs and effectively excluding lower-income workers from these opportunity-rich areas. This regulatory tax on housing has been estimated to add hundreds of thousands of dollars to home prices in coastal cities. The result is a geographic sorting where high-productivity regions become enclaves of the already advantaged, while those seeking upward mobility are trapped in lower-productivity regions with fewer opportunities for advancement. Small business regulations, while individually defensible, create a cumulative burden that disadvantages entrepreneurs without substantial resources. Starting a restaurant, for example, requires navigating health department approvals, building permits, liquor licenses, and various other regulatory hurdles. Large corporations can spread these compliance costs across their operations and employ specialists to navigate regulatory mazes. In contrast, small entrepreneurs often lack the capital, expertise, and political connections to overcome these barriers, creating a system that favors established businesses over new entrants. Financial regulations intended to protect consumers sometimes have the perverse effect of limiting access to financial services for those most in need of economic mobility. For instance, well-intentioned banking regulations have contributed to the decline of community banks that historically served local businesses. Meanwhile, regulations on microlending and peer-to-peer finance limit innovative approaches that could expand credit access. The result is a bifurcated system where the affluent enjoy abundant financial options while the poor rely on expensive alternative services like payday lenders and check-cashing operations. The political economy of regulation explains why these barriers persist despite their anti-competitive effects. Established interests have strong incentives to lobby for regulations that protect them from competition, while the costs of these regulations are diffused across consumers and potential entrants who are less organized. This dynamic creates a regulatory ratchet effect where rules accumulate over time, each serving a particular interest group while collectively impeding economic dynamism and mobility. Reforming this system requires not just technical policy changes but confronting the political coalitions that benefit from the status quo.

Chapter 6: The Rule of Law Crisis: Legal Systems That Reinforce Stratification

The American legal system, theoretically a neutral arbiter ensuring equal justice under law, often functions as a mechanism that reinforces existing social hierarchies. This stratification occurs through multiple channels, including differential access to legal resources, disparate treatment within the justice system, and the increasing complexity of laws that advantages those with specialized knowledge and representation. Access to quality legal representation remains profoundly unequal. While the wealthy can retain top-tier attorneys who navigate legal complexities with ease, middle-class Americans often find legal services prohibitively expensive, and low-income individuals must rely on overburdened public defenders or legal aid services. This representation gap has concrete consequences: studies consistently show that outcomes in both criminal and civil cases correlate strongly with the quality and resources of legal counsel. As legal matters grow increasingly technical, this advantage compounds, creating what amounts to two distinct justice systems operating in parallel. Civil justice issues particularly illuminate how legal systems can entrench disadvantage. Eviction proceedings, debt collection cases, and family court matters disproportionately affect lower-income Americans, yet these individuals typically face these consequential legal challenges without representation. In housing courts across America, approximately 90% of landlords have attorneys while 90% of tenants do not. This imbalance predictably skews outcomes, with represented parties securing more favorable settlements and judgments. These civil legal problems cascade into other areas of life, affecting employment, housing stability, and family cohesion. The criminal justice system exhibits even starker disparities. Mass incarceration has disproportionately affected low-income communities and people of color, creating lasting barriers to economic advancement. A criminal record severely limits employment opportunities, housing options, and educational access. Moreover, the growth of monetary sanctions - including fines, fees, and court costs - creates a form of legal debt that can trap individuals in cycles of poverty and recidivism. In many jurisdictions, failure to pay these financial obligations can result in license suspension, making it impossible to legally drive to work, further impeding economic mobility. Regulatory complexity creates another dimension of legal stratification. The federal legal code has expanded to such an extent that legal scholars cannot even count the total number of criminal offenses it contains. This complexity advantages those with resources to secure specialized legal guidance while creating pitfalls for those navigating the system without such assistance. Small business owners, for example, must comply with regulations spanning multiple agencies and jurisdictions, creating compliance costs that function as regressive taxes favoring large corporations with dedicated legal departments. When the rule of law weakens, personal networks and trust substitute for legal enforcement of promises. Those born into privileged circles can rely on these relationships, while outsiders face significantly higher transaction costs. This explains why rule of law measures correlate strongly with economic mobility across countries. Nations with clear, consistently enforced legal frameworks provide more opportunities for talented individuals without connections to advance based on merit. Conversely, societies where legal outcomes depend heavily on who you know rather than what you did invariably show lower rates of economic mobility.

Chapter 7: Policy Solutions: Restoring Pathways to Upward Mobility

Restoring America's promise of upward mobility requires specific policy interventions that address the structural barriers to opportunity. These solutions need not involve massive government expansion or abandoning market principles—indeed, many would enhance economic freedom while increasing opportunity. The challenge lies not in identifying effective policies but in overcoming the political resistance from those who benefit from the status quo. Educational reform represents the most urgent priority. School choice programs, properly designed, can dramatically improve outcomes for disadvantaged students while creating competitive pressure for public school improvement. Successful models include both voucher programs and charter schools that maintain public funding while gaining operational flexibility. Higher education similarly requires reform to control costs and improve quality, potentially through expanded online learning options and linking federal funding to measurable outcomes. Most fundamentally, education funding formulas need restructuring to ensure that resources flow to students with the greatest needs rather than reinforcing existing advantages. Regulatory reform must target the complex web of rules that protect established interests. Occupational licensing requirements should be limited to situations with genuine health and safety concerns, with interstate recognition of credentials to enhance mobility. Zoning reforms could dramatically increase housing affordability in high-opportunity areas by allowing greater density and reducing artificial supply constraints. Simplifying small business regulations and creating one-stop permitting processes would reduce barriers to entrepreneurship, particularly for those without specialized knowledge or political connections. Legal system reforms should focus on expanding access to justice while reducing complexity. Civil legal aid programs need substantial expansion to ensure that low-income individuals can effectively navigate consequential legal challenges. Criminal justice reform should prioritize reducing incarceration for non-violent offenses and eliminating financial barriers that trap people in cycles of debt and punishment. Regulatory enforcement should emphasize compliance assistance rather than punitive measures, particularly for small businesses making good-faith efforts to follow complex rules. Immigration reform should focus on creating a skills-based system that welcomes talented individuals while maintaining orderly processes. Canada's point system provides a useful model, prioritizing education, language proficiency, and work experience. For undocumented residents already integrated into communities, a path to legal status combined with strengthened enforcement would restore rule of law principles while acknowledging practical realities. These reforms would enhance economic dynamism while ensuring that immigration complements rather than competes with opportunities for disadvantaged citizens. Tax policy can support mobility without dramatically expanding government. Shifting from income taxation toward consumption taxes would encourage saving and investment while reducing complexity. Eliminating deductions and credits that disproportionately benefit the wealthy would broaden the tax base while making the system more progressive. Estate tax reform could reduce the intergenerational transmission of advantage while preserving incentives for wealth creation. These changes would generate revenue for mobility-enhancing investments while reducing distortions that favor established interests. Implementation of these reforms would face significant political resistance, particularly from the coalition of elites and dependent constituencies that benefits from current arrangements. Overcoming this resistance requires building unusual political alliances that transcend traditional partisan divides. By framing mobility as a unifying national goal rather than a partisan issue, reform advocates might generate the broad support necessary to challenge entrenched interests. Success would restore not just economic opportunity but the social cohesion and democratic vitality that depend on the belief that hard work and talent lead to advancement regardless of background.

Summary

The decline of economic mobility in America represents a profound betrayal of the nation's foundational promise. What makes this situation particularly troubling is its exceptionalism—the United States now ranks among the least mobile developed societies despite its historical identity as the land of opportunity. This transformation reflects not inevitable economic forces but specific policy choices that have created and reinforced barriers to advancement. From educational systems that magnify rather than mitigate initial advantages to regulatory frameworks that protect incumbents from competition to legal institutions that deliver unequal justice, these structural impediments have calcified America's class system while maintaining the illusion of meritocracy. The path forward requires addressing these structural barriers through targeted reforms that expand opportunity without abandoning market principles or individual responsibility. By recognizing mobility as a shared value that transcends partisan divides, Americans can reclaim their distinctive promise of opportunity and create a society that rewards merit rather than entrenching privilege. This represents not just an economic imperative but a moral one, essential to preserving the social cohesion and democratic values that define the American experiment. When talent and effort matter more than family background in determining life outcomes, both justice and prosperity flourish—a goal worthy of renewed national commitment.

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F.H. Buckley

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