Provoke

Provoke Plot Summary

Introduction

Why do some leaders consistently anticipate and shape the future while others remain stuck reacting to changes after they've already occurred? In today's rapidly evolving world, traditional approaches to decision-making—gathering data, analyzing past trends, and following best practices—are increasingly insufficient. The most successful leaders have discovered that when facing uncertainty, the ability to provoke rather than merely respond creates competitive advantage. At its core, this framework introduces a revolutionary perspective on leadership decision-making. Rather than getting trapped in analysis paralysis or waiting for complete information, effective leaders recognize when trends are shifting from "if" to "when"—the crucial phase change where possibilities transform into inevitabilities. Through five distinct provocation strategies—Envision, Position, Drive, Adapt, and Activate—leaders can overcome the natural human biases that narrow our peripheral vision and systematically lead to organizational blindness. By understanding these fatal flaws and learning practical techniques to expand organizational awareness, anyone can develop the capability to shape rather than merely react to the future.

Chapter 1: Recognizing If-to-When Phase Changes

Recognizing the moment when a trend shifts from "if it might happen" to "when it will happen" represents one of the most crucial leadership skills in today's uncertain environment. This pivotal phase change resembles a rollercoaster approaching its peak—there's a moment where potential energy transforms into kinetic energy, and momentum becomes unstoppable. Most leaders miss this transition entirely, focused instead on analyzing past patterns rather than spotting emerging signals. The "if-to-when" framework helps explain why some innovations rapidly transform industries while others languish. Consider streaming video services: early cord-cutting behaviors that began as niche consumer choices inevitably transformed into mainstream consumption patterns once the desirability, feasibility, and viability barriers were overcome. What distinguished success from failure wasn't whether companies could see the trend happening—many observed it—but whether they recognized the phase change and acted accordingly before the momentum became irreversible. Three critical factors determine whether a trend will pass through this phase change. First is desirability—whether the trend offers an unequivocally better outcome than the current state. When streaming services gave consumers control over when and where they watched content without significant trade-offs, the desirability was unquestionable. Second is feasibility—whether technological, regulatory, and behavioral barriers can be overcome. Finally, viability asks if there's a reasonable path to profitability, though market creation often happens before actual profitability materializes. Understanding these dynamics allows leaders to evaluate trends more accurately. Rather than treating all uncertainties equally, they can distinguish between genuine "ifs" (trends that might never materialize) and emerging "whens" (trends whose manifestation is inevitable, with only timing in question). This distinction fundamentally changes appropriate strategic responses—leaders should explore and position themselves differently depending on which phase a trend occupies. The ability to recognize these transitions early provides strategic advantages that competitors miss when they treat genuine phase changes as merely hypothetical possibilities.

Chapter 2: Fatal Human Flaws That Narrow Peripheral Vision

Our brains come equipped with powerful cognitive biases—evolutionary shortcuts that helped our ancestors survive but often hinder our ability to see emerging trends. These "fatal flaws" systematically narrow our peripheral vision and create organizational blindness that prevents companies from adapting to changing conditions until it's too late. Understanding these biases is the first step toward overcoming their limiting effects. The availability bias causes us to overvalue information that's easily accessible in our minds. We place disproportionate weight on vivid, recent, or emotionally charged information while discounting subtler signals from the periphery. A related limitation, egocentric bias, leads us to prioritize data that confirms our existing worldview. Together, these biases create self-reinforcing patterns where leaders continually miss important environmental changes because those changes don't fit their mental models of how the world works. Similarly, the affect heuristic bias makes us rely on emotional responses when evaluating information—small trends that don't trigger strong emotions get overlooked, regardless of their potential impact. These individual biases combine with organizational dysfunctions to create powerful resistance to recognizing phase changes. Status quo bias makes any deviation from current operations feel like a loss, while overconfidence bias leads executives to systematically overestimate their ability to predict outcomes. Organizational politeness further compounds these problems—meetings become exercises in avoiding embarrassment rather than forums for critical debate, with important disagreements taken "offline" where they rarely resurface. Meanwhile, leaders' calendars become so packed with back-to-back meetings that cognitive bandwidth for spotting emerging trends disappears entirely. The interaction between human biases and organizational systems creates systematic blindness. Even when trends are identified, the escalation of commitment tendency leads organizations to double down on failing strategies rather than adapt. Organizations unconsciously dismantle mechanisms that might expand peripheral vision—cutting exploratory budgets when times get tight or discouraging provocative questions during strategy sessions. The result is a predictable pattern where companies consistently miss, deny, overanalyze, and then respond meekly to emerging trends that were visible long before they became existential threats. Real-world examples abound: Blockbuster's reluctance to abandon the store model despite clear signals about changing consumer preferences; traditional department stores responding too late to e-commerce; and countless executives dismissing early indicators as "too small to matter" before those same indicators transformed entire industries. By recognizing these fatal flaws, leaders can implement specific techniques to expand peripheral vision and overcome their natural tendency toward organizational myopia.

Chapter 3: Envision: Creating Scenarios to See Possible Futures

Envisioning represents the foundational provocation that allows leaders to see multiple potential futures rather than merely extrapolating past trends. Unlike traditional forecasting that creates a single expected outcome with upside and downside sensitivities, effective scenario planning acknowledges fundamental uncertainties by developing distinct, plausible stories about how the future might unfold. This approach recognizes that in complex environments, the future will never perfectly match our predictions—the value comes from expanding our peripheral vision to consider possibilities we might otherwise miss. The process begins by creating a focal question that allows for consideration of diverse desired outcomes. Rather than narrowly asking, "How will our market share evolve?" effective envisioning frames broader questions like, "How will our industry evolve over the next decade, and what implications might this have for our business model?" This framing creates space to consider multiple stakeholder perspectives and avoids prematurely narrowing the analysis to favor existing biases. With the focal question established, scenario development involves identifying the driving forces—political, economic, social, technological, environmental—that will shape future outcomes. The key insight is distinguishing between true uncertainties (still in the "if" phase) and trends that have already crossed the phase change to "when." For example, when examining energy futures, factors like increasing global demand and continued technological innovation are givens, while the speed of decarbonization or degree of international collaboration remain genuine uncertainties. By focusing on these critical uncertainties, leaders create a 2×2 matrix that frames four distinct but equally plausible future scenarios. Each scenario must pass three tests: it needs a compelling narrative that brings the future to life, it must explain how all critical uncertainties resolve in that scenario, and it should connect to quantitative models that allow for testing strategic options. The real power comes from identifying leading indicators and signposts that signal which scenario is becoming more likely as the future unfolds. Like experienced sailors constantly scanning weather patterns, skilled scenario planners develop "pathological scanning" capabilities—automatically processing new information to determine whether it strengthens or weakens the probability of different scenarios. Importantly, envisioning isn't a one-time exercise but a continuous, dynamic process. As new information becomes available, both the scenarios and the relative likelihood of each must be adjusted. When done well, this approach creates what scenario planning pioneer Peter Schwartz called "memories of the future"—mental models that allow leaders to recognize patterns more quickly when they begin to emerge in the real world. This expanded peripheral vision becomes the foundation for all other provocation strategies, enabling leaders to position themselves for advantage regardless of which future actually unfolds.

Chapter 4: Position: Placing Strategic Bets in Uncertain Times

When facing trends still in the "if" phase—genuinely uncertain whether they'll ever cross the threshold to inevitability—positioning represents the optimal provocation strategy. Unlike reactive approaches that wait for certainty before acting, positioning involves placing strategic bets that maximize optionality while the future remains unclear. This approach recognizes that early movers can shape emerging trends to their advantage by taking three critical actions: situating, framing, and testing. Situating involves placing bets that maximize the likelihood your desired future will materialize. Consider how Warby Parker positioned itself at the intersection of two uncertain trends: consumers' willingness to purchase eyewear online and their desire for more affordable, stylish options. By creating a direct-to-consumer model that eliminated middlemen and passed savings to customers, they situated themselves perfectly to benefit if these trends materialized—which they ultimately did. Similarly, Zuora's founder Tien Tzuo positioned his company to benefit from the subscription economy by developing infrastructure that would become essential once the trend gained momentum. Framing involves designing experiments that will provide clear signals about whether a hypothesis is coming true. The key is isolating specific variables rather than testing everything at once. When Warby Parker allowed customers to try five pairs of glasses at home before purchasing, they were testing a precise hypothesis about consumer behavior—not running a comprehensive business model test. This targeted approach generates cleaner data about emerging trends and allows for faster learning cycles without overcommitting resources. Testing represents the execution phase—actively engaging with the market to see how it responds. The most effective tests create observable behaviors rather than self-reported intentions. Netflix's gradual evolution from DVD-by-mail to streaming exemplifies this approach—each new feature tested specific consumer preferences while maintaining the core business. Importantly, positioning isn't about finding the perfect strategy immediately but creating a series of minimally viable moves that continuously refine understanding while the trend remains uncertain. The common thread across successful positioning strategies is patience combined with persistent learning. From Amazon's beachhead in books to Professor Rosalind Picard's pioneering work in affective computing, positioning provocateurs don't try to force outcomes before conditions are right. Instead, they maintain a clear North Star while continuously testing hypotheses, always ready to accelerate when signals indicate the phase change from "if" to "when" has begun. This approach creates asymmetric upside—limited downside if the trend never materializes but substantial advantage if it does.

Chapter 5: Drive and Adapt: Taking Control When Change is Inevitable

Once a trend passes through the phase change from "if" to "when," leaders must shift their provocation strategy to match this new reality. Drive and Adapt represent two distinct approaches for taking control when a change becomes inevitable, with the choice between them depending on how much influence the organization can exert over the trend's trajectory. Both require overcoming the cognitive dissonance that makes action difficult—similar to forcing yourself to bungee jump despite every instinct telling you not to leap. Drive is the provocation strategy used when a single organization can meaningfully shape the outcome of a broader trend. William Durant, despite initially hating automobiles as noisy and dangerous, recognized their inevitable adoption and drove the industry's consolidation by founding General Motors. Similarly, Pony Ma identified the smartphone and instant messaging phase changes early and drove WeChat to become far more than a communication platform—incorporating payments, social media, and countless other services. In both cases, these leaders didn't just react to change; they actively shaped how the inevitable trends would manifest. The drive provocation requires tremendous conviction and confidence. Leaders must act decisively even when significant evidence suggests the move might fail. This isn't blind optimism but rather a calculated bet based on recognizing the phase change before others. Those who successfully drive change often surround themselves with trusted advisors who help spot opportunities—Durant had rival carriage makers showing him Buick's potential, while Ma had Zhang Xiaolong bringing early messaging app concepts from the West. Their success came from combining keen observation with decisive action once they recognized the phase change. Adapt becomes the necessary provocation when the trend is inevitable, but the organization has limited ability to influence its direction. This approach requires the emotional fortitude to acknowledge that a business model is no longer fit for purpose—often the hardest provocation to execute successfully. Intel's shift from memory chips to microprocessors exemplifies this approach. When COO Andy Grove asked CEO Gordon Moore what a new CEO would do if they were brought in, Moore's honest answer—"get us out of memories"—acknowledged the reality that Japanese competitors had made their core business unsustainable. The power of adapt comes from embracing uncertainty rather than fighting it. As Paula Gold-Williams of CPS Energy noted about the energy transition, "We must fight our inclination to avoid uncertainty, realizing we cannot stop change." Organizations that successfully adapt maintain their core values while fundamentally reimagining how they create value. By accepting the inevitable trend but reshaping their response to it, they often create more sustainable advantage than those who cling to failing models until no options remain.

Chapter 6: Activate: Harnessing Your Ecosystem for Collective Impact

As our world grows increasingly interconnected, the ability for any single entity to drive change diminishes. The Activate provocation recognizes this reality, focusing on triggering network effects and ecosystem dynamics that can collectively shape trends. Unlike Drive, which relies on direct control, or Adapt, which focuses on internal transformation, Activate leverages the power of multiple actors working in concert toward a shared vision, similar to a stadium "wave" that begins with a small group but grows to encompass thousands. Successful activation starts with identifying the right ecosystem strategy. Organizations must make explicit choices about whether to participate in bilateral partnerships (closed systems with few players), multinodal arrangements (several entities with complementary capabilities), or natural ecosystems (open systems with multiple players of each type). Each approach offers different advantages—bilateral partnerships provide clearer profit distribution but less resilience, while natural ecosystems sacrifice short-term gains for greater long-term viability. The critical insight is recognizing which ecosystem structure best matches your desired outcome. The experience of Pittsburgh demonstrates how activation can transform entire communities. Faced with catastrophic manufacturing job losses, Carnegie Mellon University activated a diverse ecosystem of government agencies, educational institutions, and technology companies to reimagine the city's economic foundation. By focusing on emerging strengths in robotics, computing, and biotechnology, they created a reinforcing system where startups, established firms, and research institutions continuously strengthened each other's capabilities. This approach succeeded where similar cities failed precisely because Pittsburgh built connections across traditionally siloed sectors. Mozilla provides another powerful example of ecosystem activation. Recognizing they couldn't compete with Microsoft's Internet Explorer through traditional means, they embraced open source development—activating thousands of volunteer programmers worldwide to create Firefox. By positioning the browser as a community-driven alternative and providing resources that nurtured developer engagement, Mozilla created a product that outperformed competitors despite limited internal resources. Their success demonstrated how activation can overcome seemingly insurmountable resource disadvantages. The Activate provocation requires particular attention to accelerating change. As cycle times compress, provocateurs must continuously speed up their sensing, responding, and ecosystem engagement. Tools like agile operations, big data analytics, and influencer networks help monitor ecosystem dynamics and adjust course rapidly. Perhaps most importantly, effective activation requires humility—recognizing that shaping the future often means surrendering some control to unlock collective capabilities far beyond what any single organization could achieve alone.

Chapter 7: Profiles of Successful Provocateurs

Provocation transcends business strategy to encompass any leader seeking to shape rather than merely respond to the future. Three remarkable individuals—each from different sectors and facing unique challenges—demonstrate how the principles of provocation can create extraordinary impact when applied with purpose and persistence. Deborah Bial founded The Posse Foundation after hearing a former student remark, "I never would have dropped out of college if I had my posse with me." This simple observation catalyzed her recognition that talented, diverse students often failed in college not from lack of ability but from isolation. Rather than accepting the conventional wisdom that these students weren't "college material," Bial envisioned a different future where students would attend college in supportive groups of ten. She positioned her organization through a unique "Dynamic Assessment Process" that identified leadership potential beyond traditional metrics, then drove change by creating partnerships with prestigious universities. When initially facing resistance, Bial adapted her approach without compromising her core vision. Throughout Posse's 30-year evolution, she has continuously activated an expanding ecosystem of educational institutions, corporations, and foundations, ultimately providing over $1.5 billion in scholarships and transforming how universities think about diversity and student success. Ryan Gravel transformed Atlanta through a master's thesis that evolved into the Atlanta BeltLine—33 miles of multi-use trails connecting 45 neighborhoods. His provocation journey began during study abroad in Paris, where he experienced how infrastructure shapes not just cities but human lives. Returning to Atlanta, he envisioned a better future leveraging abandoned railway corridors to reconnect divided communities. Though initially doubting his idea would materialize, Gravel positioned it through hundreds of community meetings, adapting his approach as he encountered resistance. His insight that "infrastructure was the construction not only of the city, but of our lives" helped activate a diverse coalition of supporters, from cyclists to affordable housing advocates. By embracing the role of "sheepdog"—keeping stakeholders aligned while pushing forward—Gravel demonstrates how provocateurs can succeed even when formally stepping away from their creations. Valerie Irick Rainford's journey from poverty to founding Elloree Talent Strategies exemplifies how personal resilience transforms into organizational provocation. Overcoming profound childhood hardship, Rainford developed extraordinary observational skills and a drive for improvement that propelled her through leadership positions at the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase. Her provocation formula—Data + Supportive Leader + Agent of Change—helped JPMorgan increase Black executive representation by over 40% in three years. When she recognized the broader "if-to-when" shift in corporate America's approach to diversity, she activated her network of CEO relationships to launch her own firm, now serving sixteen major companies. Rainford's insistence on moving beyond diversity and inclusion to focus on equity demonstrates how provocateurs continuously evolve their approaches as trends shift, always maintaining their North Star while adjusting tactics to maximize impact. These diverse examples illustrate that provocation isn't limited to corporate titans or technological innovators. Anyone with the courage to envision a better future, position resources effectively, drive or adapt to inevitable changes, and activate broader ecosystems can shape the world around them. The common thread isn't background, resources, or position—it's the willingness to act with purpose in the face of uncertainty.

Summary

The essence of effective leadership in uncertain times lies in the ability to recognize and act during critical phase changes—those pivotal moments when trends shift from "if they might happen" to "when they will happen." By understanding the fatal flaws that narrow our peripheral vision and applying the right provocation strategy at the right time, leaders can shape rather than merely react to the future. Whether envisioning multiple scenarios, positioning strategic bets, driving or adapting to inevitable changes, or activating powerful ecosystems, the fundamental principle remains the same: action creates learning in ways that analysis alone never can. The world increasingly rewards those willing to overcome cognitive dissonance and act despite incomplete information. As uncertainty accelerates across every domain, the ability to provoke with purpose represents perhaps the most valuable leadership capability for our time. By expanding our peripheral vision, recognizing patterns earlier, and taking minimally viable moves before phase changes become obvious to everyone, we create asymmetric advantage—seeing possibilities others miss and shaping trends that would otherwise shape us. This isn't merely a strategy for business success but a philosophy for navigating an increasingly unpredictable world: observe with intention, act with purpose, and continuously learn through provocation.

About Author

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Geoff Tuff

Geoff has almost 30 years of experience consulting to some of the world's top companies on the subjects of strategy, growth, innovation, and adapting business models to deal with change. Currently, he is a Principal at Deloitte and holds various leadership positions across its Sustainability, Innovation and Strategy practices. Prior to this, he led the innovation firm Doblin and was a senior partner at Monitor Group, serving as a member of its global Board of Directors. He is currently based in Deloitte's Boston office.Geoff's work centers around helping clients transform their businesses to grow and compete in nontraditional ways. Over the course of his career, Geoff has worked in virtually every industry and he uses that breadth of experience to bring novel, cross-sector insights about how things might operate to clients stuck in industry conventional wisdom. Geoff has a particular strength in using facilitation and personal intervention to help clients make hard choices and take action. For his entire career, Geoff has focused exclusively on helping companies grow. He has been instrumental in developing many of Monitor's - and now Deloitte's - core methodologies related to driving profitable topline growth for clients. His expertise spans the domains of design-driven innovation, new business model development, product launch and growth strategy, and business transformation. Geoff is valued for his integrative approach to solving problems. He combines deep analytic and strategic expertise with a natural orientation towards approaches embodied in design thinking. His belief that human behavior is still - even in the digital age - the fundamental driver of economic value for companies allows him to bring a unique perspective to his clients struggling to shift their business models. He is a widely sought-after speaker and writer on the topic of growth through innovation. His writing has appeared in journals such as Marketing Management and Harvard Business Review and as a regular contribution to HuffPost. He is also co-author of the National Bestseller "Detonate: Why - and How - Corporations need to Blow up Best Practices (and Bring a Beginner's Mind) to Survive," released in May, 2018. In 2019, Thinkers50 named Geoff as finalist for the Distinguished Achievement Award in Strategy. Geoff grew up in Canada and the UK, and came to the United States for university. He received his B.A., with honors, in English literature and creative writing, from Dartmouth College. He also holds a MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was an honors student. He currently lives in Wellesley, Massachusetts with his wife, Martha, and four sons.

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