Us vs. Them

Us vs. Them Plot Summary

Introduction

When Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, set himself on fire in December 2010 after police confiscated his goods, he ignited more than just his own body. His desperate act sparked widespread protests that ultimately toppled the government and triggered the Arab Spring across North Africa and the Middle East. This dramatic moment illustrates a central theme explored throughout this analysis - how individual frustration can transform into collective rage that reshapes nations and reconfigures global politics. Our world stands at a precarious crossroads. The post-Cold War promise of global integration, prosperity, and cooperation is unraveling before our eyes, replaced by surging nationalism, populism, and a fundamental "us versus them" division within societies. The economic forces of globalization have created both winners and losers, with the latter increasingly rejecting established political systems and elites. Technological disruption threatens to accelerate these divisions, particularly in developing nations ill-equipped to manage such rapid change. Through compelling analysis and global perspective, readers will discover why walls - both physical and virtual - are rising, how governments respond to citizen demands, and what alternative paths might lead away from dangerous fragmentation toward more inclusive societies.

Chapter 1: The Growing Divide: Winners and Losers of Globalization

The 2016 election of Donald Trump in America and the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom signaled a dramatic shift in global politics. These watershed moments weren't isolated events but powerful indicators of a widespread rejection of globalism. For decades, political and business elites championed a world of lowered barriers, integrated markets, and free-flowing capital as the path to prosperity for all. Instead, large portions of Western populations found themselves economically adrift while watching others thrive. Globalization created an unprecedented economic efficiency by moving production to regions with lower costs. While this lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in developing nations and created the first truly global middle class, it simultaneously hollowed out manufacturing sectors across America and Europe. Between 1948 and 2000, the U.S. economy grew at about 2.3 percent annually per capita. Since 2000, that growth has fallen below 1 percent. Nearly 40 percent of American factory jobs have disappeared since 1979. More telling is the human cost - for every unemployed American man between 25 and 55, there are three who have stopped looking for work entirely. About half of American men who dropped out of the labor force take pain medication daily. The technological revolution compounds these economic pressures. Automation threatens jobs far beyond manufacturing. A study by McKinsey estimated that 73 percent of food service and accommodation industry jobs could be automated, along with more than half of retail positions and two-thirds of finance and insurance roles. While technology may eventually create more jobs than it eliminates, there's little reason to believe displaced workers will easily transition to more technically demanding positions. This widening gap between winners and losers has created fertile ground for political entrepreneurs offering simple solutions and villains to blame. Cultural anxiety amplifies economic insecurity. Globalization doesn't just move products; it moves people, shifting the racial, ethnic, linguistic, and religious makeup of communities. In Europe, the free movement of EU citizens across internal borders brought workers with unfamiliar names and languages. The subsequent migrant crisis that delivered the largest influx of homeless people since World War II, many of them Muslims, heightened fears about national identity. Recent terrorist attacks carried out by Muslims born inside Europe further intensified these anxieties. The instantaneous global flow of ideas and information through digital platforms connects more people than ever before while simultaneously amplifying grievances and providing tools for coordinated protest. Social media creates "filter bubbles" where citizens consume different sets of information about the world and its threats. The growing isolation of various groups from shared facts and experiences makes addressing common challenges increasingly difficult. These forces suggest that regardless of which political leaders emerge victorious in coming elections, the fundamental battle between "us" and "them" will only intensify.

Chapter 2: Rising Discontent: Warning Signs of Social Unrest

For seven years, Mohammed Bouazizi supported his family by selling vegetables from an unlicensed cart in Tunisia. When authorities confiscated his produce in December 2010, his subsequent self-immolation became a catalyst for revolution. Within weeks, Tunisia's 23-year dictatorship collapsed. The wave quickly spread - Egypt's Hosni Mubarak fell after three decades in power, Libya's Muammar Qaddafi was killed in the streets, and Syria descended into a devastating civil war. These dramatic events demonstrated how quickly public anger can change history when people believe their government neither cares about nor can improve their lives. Ironically, many governments now face threats because of their previous successes. The first decade of the 21st century saw unprecedented economic growth across developing nations. China's rapid industrialization lifted demand for commodities, pouring cash into resource-rich countries. Oil-producing nations enjoyed crude prices above $100 per barrel, allowing ruling elites to maintain generous subsidies and avoid painful reforms. Citizens who joined new middle classes don't just want better government - they demand it. When economic conditions deteriorated after the 2008 global financial crisis, these expectations remained. Social unrest erupted in unexpected places. In 2013, a small environmental protest against removing trees in Istanbul's Gezi Park transformed into nationwide demonstrations against Turkey's increasingly authoritarian government. That same year, a nine-cent increase in bus fares in São Paulo, Brazil, triggered massive protests across the country against corruption and inadequate public services. In Ethiopia, university students protesting government land policies sparked wider demonstrations that forced authorities to declare a state of emergency. Even in China, where the Communist Party has effectively managed dissent for decades, the government recorded over 127,000 "mass incidents" in 2010 before ceasing to publish such statistics. The looming technological revolution threatens to make these tensions far worse in developing countries. While automation and artificial intelligence threaten about 47 percent of jobs in the United States, they endanger 65 percent in Nigeria, 69 percent in India, and 77 percent in China. The development model that lifted millions from poverty - moving young rural workers to urban factories where they produce exports - is breaking down as robots replace human labor. A shoe manufacturer in Kentucky finds it more economical to replace a middle-wage worker with a no-wage robot than hire a low-wage worker in Mexico or Cambodia. Government resilience will determine which nations weather these storms. Countries that can invest in new technologies, train citizens to use them, minimize inequality, fight corruption, and provide space for peaceful protest will adapt more successfully. Democracies have advantages because they allow for the expression of frustration through elections rather than riots. But all governments face unprecedented challenges as citizens' expectations rise while their ability to meet those expectations diminishes. The warning signs of major social upheaval are flashing worldwide, and the technological disruptions have only begun.

Chapter 3: Fracturing Societies: Fault Lines in Developing Nations

When examining how societies fracture under pressure, no region demonstrates this more vividly than sub-Saharan Africa. In South Africa, student protests have become increasingly violent as young people confront a grim reality: among nearly 20 million South Africans between ages fifteen and thirty-five, only 6.2 million have jobs. The peaceful end of apartheid in the early 1990s stands among humanity's greatest achievements, but a quarter century later, South Africa remains one of the world's most unequal societies. For young people with no memory of apartheid, the ruling African National Congress is not the party of liberation but of power and privilege. These divisions manifest in rising violence - the number of annual protests climbed from 21 during good economic times (2004-2008) to 164 in recent years (2014-2016). In Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, religious and regional tensions create dangerous fault lines. Christian farmers and Muslim herders have fought deadly battles, while Boko Haram militants terrorize the Muslim-dominated north. A 2017 Oxfam study ranked Nigeria last among 152 countries in "commitment to reducing inequality," noting that "Nigeria's richest man earns 8,000 times more in one day than a poor Nigerian will spend on basic needs in a year." Despite strong economic growth, the number of Nigerians living in poverty increased by nearly 70 percent between 2004 and 2010. As oil prices fell, the government lost its primary source of revenue, making investment in education and infrastructure increasingly difficult. Across the Middle East, authoritarian regimes struggle to maintain control amid demographic pressures and economic hardships. Egypt faces a population explosion - from 66 million in 2000 to over 90 million today, projected to reach 150 million by 2050. Nearly 30 percent live in poverty while the country struggles with food and water shortages. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's government has tightened its grip by isolating opponents, but bread riots erupted in 2017 when subsidies were cut. In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has launched the ambitious Vision 2030 project to modernize the economy and create jobs for young Saudis, but transforming a society where two-thirds of citizens work in undemanding government positions presents enormous challenges. Latin America offers another view of fracturing societies. Brazil's middle class grew from 35 percent when the Workers Party came to power in 2003 to nearly 60 percent by 2013. Government programs like Bolsa Familia lifted millions from poverty, but citizens now demand better services amid economic recession and corruption scandals. In Venezuela, former President Hugo Chávez used oil wealth to reduce poverty, but after his death and the collapse of oil prices, his successor Nicolas Maduro presides over a devastated economy with hyperinflation, food shortages, and violent repression of dissent. In Asia, China's remarkable economic success has lifted 700 million people from poverty over four decades, but serious challenges loom. Income inequality has grown dramatically, with coastal regions far wealthier than the interior. Environmental degradation threatens public health, with two-thirds of groundwater unfit for human contact. Most concerning is the government's eagerness to embrace automation and artificial intelligence without public discussion of the massive job losses that will result. Meanwhile, India's rapid growth has exacerbated inequality, with about 600 million people still living at near-subsistence levels. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised infrastructure improvements, but the country's needs are enormous - 240 million Indians lack electricity, 600 million have no toilet in their home, and one million young people enter the workforce monthly with too few jobs available. These fault lines - economic, religious, regional, ethnic - exist in all societies, but they become dangerous when governments lack the resources, legitimacy, or will to address them. As technological disruption accelerates and climate pressures intensify, these fractures will widen unless governments find new ways to foster inclusion and resilience.

Chapter 4: The New Barriers: How Walls Protect and Divide

"Do walls work? Just ask Israel about walls," Donald Trump declared in 2017, referring to Israel's 400-mile security barrier along the West Bank. Indeed, Israel appears more secure than at any time since its founding in 1948 - a stable democracy with a thriving economy. But the stark contrast in living conditions on either side of its barriers tells a different story. Inside the walls, per capita income exceeds $35,000; outside, it's about $4,300. Unemployment is just over 4 percent inside versus nearly 18 percent in the West Bank and 42 percent in Gaza. Israel's walls don't kill democracy - they protect it for "us" by denying it to "them." This model of selective protection is becoming increasingly appealing to governments worldwide. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, more than forty countries have built border barriers against more than sixty of their neighbors - more physical barriers than existed during the Cold War. These walls appear across Asia, South America, and sub-Saharan Africa, not just in Europe and the Middle East. The technology of exclusion advances with infrared sensors, cameras, and biometric identification systems that sort "desirable" from "undesirable" migrants more efficiently than brick and mortar. Beyond physical barriers, governments increasingly restrict the flow of information. In 2016, Egypt abruptly shut down twenty-one news websites accused of "spreading lies" and "supporting terrorism." Turkey has become sophisticated at managing internet access, blocking not only social media platforms but also virtual private networks (VPNs) that might circumvent censorship. Iran has created a "National Information Network" - essentially a controlled intranet that can be disconnected from the global internet. Russia has expanded government power to block online content, forcing news aggregators to prioritize state-approved sources and requiring foreign media to register as "foreign agents." China leads the world in controlling information flow with its "Great Firewall" blocking thousands of websites, its "Golden Shield" surveillance system monitoring online communications, and its "Great Cannon" that can alter content and attack websites deemed threatening. Even more ambitious is China's developing "social credit system" that will evaluate citizens based on their economic, social, and political behavior. A good score might help secure promotions, better housing, or opportunities for one's children. A poor score could restrict travel, education access, or employment prospects. This represents an unprecedented form of state control over individual lives. Within countries, new barriers also separate citizens from one another. In the United States, voting patterns show increasingly sharp divisions based on age, ethnicity, income, education level, and urban versus rural residence. A 2013 study found that American students are more racially segregated in schools today than in the late 1960s. Political divisions have intensified - 92 percent of Republicans are now to the right of the median Democrat in core views, while 94 percent of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican. These separations are reinforced by media consumption patterns that create information bubbles where citizens rarely encounter perspectives different from their own. The battle over who can vote represents another form of barrier. Throughout American history, voting rights expanded gradually - property requirements were dropped, racial restrictions eliminated, women enfranchised, and age requirements lowered. But since 2013, when the Supreme Court struck down a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, many states have introduced new restrictions that make voting more difficult. While advocates claim these measures prevent fraud, studies find virtually no evidence of widespread voter impersonation. Rather, these barriers serve political interests by determining who can and cannot participate in democracy. As governments struggle to meet citizen expectations in a rapidly changing world, the impulse to build walls - physical, digital, informational, and political - will grow stronger. These barriers may provide short-term stability and protection for some, but they fundamentally undermine the promise of shared prosperity and inclusive governance that democratic societies claim to uphold.

Chapter 5: Reimagining Society: New Social Contracts for a Changing World

What does your government owe you? This question lies at the heart of the social contract - the agreement between state and citizen that binds societies together. As technological change disrupts economies and cultural shifts transform communities, this fundamental question requires fresh answers. Traditional social contracts assumed relatively stable career paths, national economies with clear boundaries, and cultural homogeneity. None of these conditions holds in today's interconnected, rapidly evolving world. The most successful attempts to reimagine the social contract begin with education. In a digital-age economy, learning must become a lifelong process rather than something completed in youth. Singapore has created "individual learning accounts" providing every citizen over twenty-five with funds for training in new technologies. Its government agency Workforce Singapore partners with businesses to help employees develop skills needed to remain valuable as jobs evolve. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a traditional liberal arts education becomes more important, not less, as critical thinking, creativity, and communication skills prove essential for adapting to changing circumstances. Early childhood education also plays a crucial role in battling inequality - New York City's universal prekindergarten program now serves 70,000 four-year-olds, giving them educational foundations while relieving working parents of childcare costs. Taxation systems must also evolve. As automation reduces human employment, some economists have proposed taxing robots to fund worker retraining or universal basic income programs. Others suggest taxing corporations based on revenue rather than workforce size to incentivize job creation, or imposing higher rates on rental income than on productive innovations. Finland has experimented with guaranteed basic income by sending monthly payments to unemployed citizens that continue even after they find work, encouraging participation in the "gig economy" without trapping people in poverty. While Switzerland rejected a similar plan in a 2016 referendum, the concept has attracted interest from local governments across Europe and North America. Developing countries have pioneered innovative approaches to reducing inequality. Brazil's Bolsa Familia program provided cash payments to poor families conditional on vaccinating children and sending them to school, cutting poverty by two-thirds while creating educational opportunities for millions. India's Aadhaar biometric identification system, combined with its Jan Dhan program, transfers benefits directly to citizens' bank accounts, reducing bureaucracy and corruption while connecting over a billion people to financial services. Singapore's Central Provident Fund allows citizens to borrow from retirement savings to purchase subsidized housing, providing both shelter and old-age security. Private organizations increasingly complement government efforts. Facebook's Safety Check connects users during emergencies when authorities are overwhelmed. Technology companies like Google and Amazon invest in affordable housing and infrastructure in communities where they operate. The Rumie Initiative provides tablets preloaded with educational materials to children in areas with limited access to formal schooling. Kenya's M-Pesa mobile payment system, created by telecom provider Safaricom, allows citizens without bank accounts to transfer money, pay bills, and access credit through basic cell phones. These initiatives share common principles: they recognize that education must be continuous and accessible; they acknowledge that traditional employment models are changing; they seek to reduce inequality while encouraging participation in productive activity; and they leverage technology to deliver services more efficiently. Most importantly, they represent experiments in addressing human needs when traditional social contracts no longer suffice. No single approach works everywhere, but the willingness to reimagine fundamental relationships between citizens, governments, and private institutions offers hope for societies fracturing under pressure.

Summary

The central theme running through this examination is that globalization has created a fundamental paradox - even as it has lifted hundreds of millions from poverty and generated unprecedented prosperity, it has simultaneously destabilized social and political systems worldwide. The division between winners and losers of this process manifests in different forms across societies, but consistently produces an "us versus them" dynamic that threatens established institutions. In wealthy nations, this appears as populist revolts against elites and immigrants. In developing countries, it emerges as protests against corruption and inadequate services. As technological disruption accelerates, particularly through automation and artificial intelligence, these divisions will intensify unless deliberately addressed. The path forward requires reimagining social contracts for the 21st century. Rather than retreating behind walls - physical, virtual, or psychological - societies must experiment with new approaches that share prosperity more widely while maintaining economic dynamism. This means investing in continuous education that prepares citizens for rapid change, developing taxation systems that reduce inequality without stifling innovation, creating social safety nets that support transitions between jobs rather than trapping people in dependency, and leveraging technology to deliver services more efficiently. Most importantly, it requires rejecting the false choice between open societies and secure ones. The most resilient communities will be those that maintain principles of inclusion and opportunity while acknowledging legitimate concerns about economic security and cultural identity. Building such communities demands creativity, compromise, and a willingness to see beyond the divisive rhetoric that currently dominates global politics.

About Author

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Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer (born November 12, 1969) is an American political scientist specializing in US foreign policy, states in transition, and global political risk. He is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm, and a professor at Columbia University. Eurasia Group provides financial, corporate, and government clients with information and insight on how political developments move markets. Bremmer is of Armenian and German descent.

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